为即将到来的 2022/23 流感季做准备：澳大利亚、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙和英国易感人群的建模研究。

Preparing for the upcoming 2022/23 influenza season: A modelling study of the susceptible population in Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

机构信息

Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.

出版信息

Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2023 Jan;17(1):e13091. doi: 10.1111/irv.13091. Epub 2022 Dec 28.

DOI:10.1111/irv.13091

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9835402/

Abstract

We analysed the influenza epidemic that occurred in Australia during the 2022 winter using an age-structured dynamic transmission model, which accounts for past epidemics to estimate the population susceptibility to an influenza infection. We applied the same model to five European countries. Our analysis suggests Europe might experience an early and moderately large influenza epidemic. Also, differences may arise between countries, with Germany and Spain experiencing larger epidemics, than France, Italy and the United Kingdom, especially in children.

摘要

我们使用年龄结构动态传播模型分析了 2022 年冬季澳大利亚发生的流感疫情，该模型考虑了过去的疫情，以估计人群对流感感染的易感性。我们将相同的模型应用于五个欧洲国家。我们的分析表明，欧洲可能会经历一次早期且规模适中的流感大流行。此外，各国之间可能会出现差异，德国和西班牙的疫情可能比法国、意大利和英国更为严重，尤其是在儿童中。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/48cf/9835402/6aac5082d84d/IRV-17-e13091-g001.jpg

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