School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Health Economics and HIV and AIDS Research Division (HEARDS), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Front Public Health. 2022 Dec 12;10:999514. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.999514. eCollection 2022.
Unambiguously, Nigeria is off-track in achieving the health-related SDGs. Consequentially, this study aligns with SDG 3 which calls for ". This article examines the combined effect of health expenditure and other key macro-economic factors on health indices such as maternal and newborn and child mortality in Nigeria. Contrary to existing literature, we formulated a model that predicts the level of macro-economic determinants needed to achieve the SDG targets for maternal and newborn and child mortality in Nigeria by 2030.
The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which is usually used for large T models. The study period spans from 1995 to 2020.
We found a significant negative relationship between health outcomes and macro-economic determinants namely, household consumption, total health expenditure, and gross fixed capital while we determined a significant positive relationship between health outcomes and unemployment. Our findings are further supported by out-of-sample forecast results suggesting a reduction in unemployment to 1.84 percent and an increase in health expenditure, gross fixed capital, household consumption, control of corruption to 1,818.87 billon (naira), 94.46 billion (naira), 3.2 percent, and -4.2 percent respectively to achieve SDG health targets in Nigeria by 2030.
The outcome of this result will give the Nigerian government and stakeholders a deeper understanding of the workings of the macro-economic factors, concerning health performance and will help position Nigeria, and other SSA countries by extension, toward reducing maternal mortality to 70 per 100,000 and newborn and child mortality to 25 per 1,000 births by 2030. The African leaders should consider passing into law the need for improvement in macro-economic factors for better health in Africa. We also recommend that the Nigerian government should steadily increase health expenditure to reach and move beyond the forecast level for improvement in maternal and infant mortality, given the present low and unimpressive funding for the health sector in the country.
毫不含糊地说，尼日利亚在实现与卫生相关的可持续发展目标方面已经偏离了轨道。因此，本研究符合可持续发展目标 3 的要求，该目标呼吁“采取措施确保健康的生活方式，促进各年龄段人群的福祉”。本文考察了卫生支出和其他关键宏观经济因素对尼日利亚母婴和儿童死亡率等卫生指标的综合影响。与现有文献不同，我们制定了一个模型，该模型预测了到 2030 年实现尼日利亚母婴和儿童死亡率可持续发展目标所需的宏观经济决定因素的水平。
本研究使用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 模型，该模型通常用于大型 T 模型。研究期间为 1995 年至 2020 年。
我们发现卫生结果与宏观经济决定因素之间存在显著的负相关关系，这些因素包括家庭消费、总卫生支出和固定资本总额，而卫生结果与失业率之间存在显著的正相关关系。我们的研究结果进一步得到了样本外预测结果的支持，这些结果表明，将失业率降低到 1.84%，并将卫生支出、固定资本、家庭消费、腐败控制分别增加到 1,818.87 亿奈拉、94.46 亿奈拉、3.2%和-4.2%，将有助于尼日利亚在 2030 年前实现可持续发展目标的卫生目标。
该结果将使尼日利亚政府和利益相关者更深入地了解宏观经济因素对卫生绩效的影响，并有助于为尼日利亚和其他撒哈拉以南非洲国家定位，以实现到 2030 年将产妇死亡率降低到每 10 万例 70 例，新生儿和儿童死亡率降低到每 1,000 例 25 例的目标。非洲领导人应考虑通过法律，改善宏观经济因素，以改善非洲的卫生状况。我们还建议，鉴于该国卫生部门目前的资金水平低且令人印象不佳，尼日利亚政府应稳步增加卫生支出，以达到并超过改善母婴死亡率的预测水平。
