Yu Qianwen, Wu Fengping, Shen Junyuan, Xu Xia
Business School, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou, 215009, China.
Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, 211100, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(14):40298-40314. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24794-9. Epub 2023 Jan 7.
As a critical way to realize the optimal allocation of water environment capacity resources in the basin, emission rights trading faces multiple uncertainties, making it extremely hard and challenging to formulate appropriate decisions and plans. Therefore, this study uses interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) method to model the emission rights trading process with multiple uncertainties. It can promote the secondary optimal allocation of the emission rights between the demander and the supplier after the initial allocation. Externalities caused by environmental problems are internalized through the form of emission rights trading, thereby reducing the transaction costs and promoting the coordination and integrity of water pollution control among governments in a basin. Finally, the Yellow River basin is taken as an example for case analysis. The results show that the net revenue of emission rights system in the transaction status is better than that in the non-transaction status, and the average gap of net income reaches [171.031, 193.056] billion yuan. Under different reduction policies, the average water pollutant emission reduction in transaction status is [451.15, 628.34] thousand tons, which is generally less than [516.57, 670.05] thousand tons in non-transaction status. As policies get stricter and assimilative capacity of water bodies dwindles, reduction shrinks, leading to higher risks and economic loss from being unable to meet the discharge demand. When reduction policies are relatively loose and assimilative capacity is high, emission rights trading volume peaks. At this time, the trading volume of COD reached [29.05, 40.76] thousand tons, and that of NH-N reached [3.74, 4.31] thousand tons. All these findings will offer insights for decision-makers on how to strike a balance between economic benefits and emission rights trading plans in the Yellow River basin.
作为实现流域水环境容量资源优化配置的关键途径，排污权交易面临多重不确定性，这使得制定恰当的决策和规划极为困难且具有挑战性。因此，本研究采用区间两阶段随机规划（ITSP）方法对具有多重不确定性的排污权交易过程进行建模。它能够促进初始分配后排污权在需求者和供给者之间的二次优化配置。环境问题所造成的外部性通过排污权交易的形式得以内部化，从而降低交易成本，并促进流域内各政府间水污染控制的协调与整合。最后，以黄河流域为例进行案例分析。结果表明，交易状态下排污权系统的净收益优于非交易状态，净收益平均差距达到[171.031, 193.056]亿元。在不同减排政策下，交易状态下的水污染物平均减排量为[451.15, 628.34]千吨，总体上低于非交易状态下的[516.57, 670.05]千吨。随着政策愈发严格且水体同化能力下降，减排量缩减，导致无法满足排放需求的风险和经济损失增加。当减排政策相对宽松且同化能力较高时，排污权交易量达到峰值。此时，化学需氧量（COD）交易量达到[29.05, 40.76]千吨，氨氮（NH-N）交易量达到[3.74, 4.31]千吨。所有这些研究结果将为决策者在黄河流域经济效益与排污权交易计划之间如何取得平衡提供参考。
