School of Public Policy and Administration, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China.
Gongqing Institute of Science and Technology, Jiujiang 332020, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 27;20(1):451. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20010451.
China's food security has attracted global attention as the various drivers of its instability and uncertainty have intensified. This study developed a new framework for food security evaluation in China by analyzing its availability, distribution, utilization, vulnerability, sustainability, and regulation. The entropy weight method (EWM) and the matter-element extension model (MEEM) were combined to examine China's food security status between 2001 and 2020. Additionally, an obstacle degree model (ODM) was used to investigate the key factors functioning as obstacles to food security. The results show that China's overall food security improved greatly but experienced a slight downward trend in 2003. The main obstacles initially entailed grain distribution but then spread to vulnerability- and sustainability-related issues. Ultimately, the key factors restricting China's food security were the amount of fertilizer application per unit sown area (AFA) and the grain self-sufficiency rate (GSR). The next 40 years could be the most critical period for ensuring China's food security, which incorporates demographic, climate change, and resource shortage factors. China appears to be implementing its national strategies through sustainable farmland use and agricultural technology innovation to facilitate the high-quality development of its grain industries and strengthen its food security. This study provides an overall picture of China's food security and can serve as a reference for those concerned with China's future national security.
中国的食品安全问题引起了全球关注,因为其不稳定和不确定的各种驱动因素加剧了。本研究通过分析中国的粮食供应、分配、利用、脆弱性、可持续性和监管,构建了一个新的食品安全评价框架。采用熵权法(EWM)和物元可拓模型(MEEM)对 2001 年至 2020 年中国的食品安全状况进行了研究,并采用障碍度模型(ODM)对影响中国食品安全的关键因素进行了分析。结果表明,中国的粮食安全整体水平大幅提升,但在 2003 年出现了轻微下降。最初的主要障碍涉及粮食分配问题,但后来扩展到脆弱性和可持续性相关问题。最终,限制中国粮食安全的关键因素是单位播种面积化肥施用量(AFA)和粮食自给率(GSR)。未来 40 年可能是确保中国粮食安全的最关键时期,这涉及到人口、气候变化和资源短缺等因素。中国似乎正在通过可持续的农田利用和农业技术创新来实施其国家战略,以促进粮食产业的高质量发展和加强食品安全。本研究为中国食品安全问题提供了一个整体图景,可供关注中国未来国家安全的人士参考。