Meza Francisco, Darbyshire Rebecca, Farrell Aidan, Lakso Alan, Lawson James, Meinke Holger, Nelson Gerald, Stockle Claudio
Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Glob Chang Biol. 2023 May;29(9):2557-2571. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16601. Epub 2023 Feb 16.
Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.
温带多年生果树和坚果树在世界食物多样性中发挥着不同作用，提供食用油、微量营养素、能量密集型和蛋白质密集型食物。此外，多年生植物每年能重新利用大量生物质，具有独特的恢复力。但它们对季节性温度也有独特的敏感性，需要一段休眠期才能在生长季节成功产出。本文从全球视角审视了五种温带树生水果作物——苹果、樱桃、杏仁、橄榄和葡萄——并评估了未来温度变化对热适宜性的影响。研究使用了五个地球系统模型针对两个CMIP6气候情景的气候数据以及与温度相关的胁迫指数，以指出未来作物无法种植的潜在区域，并突出潜在的新适宜区域。当前适宜区域的丧失和新地点的新增区域因情景而异。在南半球（SH），与近期历史时期（1991 - 2010年）相比，在SSP 5 - 8.5情景下，本世纪末（2081 - 2100年）的适宜区域减少了40%以上。在北半球（NH），适宜性增加了20%至近60%。然而，在SSP1 - 2.6情景下，变化要小得多，南半球区域减少约25%，北半球增加约10%。结果表明这些作物的全球生产将进行重大调整。从本质上讲，气候变化使温度适宜的地点向更高纬度转移。在南半球，大多数历史适宜区域已经位于大陆南端，限制了适应机会。如果育种工作能够使主要品种的需冷量更接近当前一些品种的水平，那么本世纪末的适宜区域会更大，但夏季温度升高会抵消这一程度。水果作物的高价值提供了诸如品种选择、使用喷头进行树冠降温、遮阳网和精准灌溉等适应机会。
