Master Program of Big Data in Biomedicine, College of Medicine, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan.
Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, No. 17, Xu-Zhou Rd., Taipei City 10055, Taiwan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 16;20(2):1614. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20021614.
Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide, and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) is Taiwan's second most common lung carcinoma histotype. This study aimed to investigate changes in the long-term trend of the SQC incidence rate in Taiwan. SQC cases between 1985 and 2019 were adopted from Taiwan's Cancer Registry System; the age-adjusted incidence rate was calculated using the World Standard Population in 2000. The long-term trends of the age, period, and birth cohort effect of SQC incidence rates were estimated using the SEER Age-Period-Cohort Web Tool. The results revealed that the incidence of lung carcinoma in Taiwan increased, while the incidence of SQC exhibited a slight decrease during this study period. The age rate ratio (ARR) of the incidence rate in men declined gradually, and the period effect changed more slowly for women than men. The cohort effect formed a bimodal curve. The annual percentage change results for women indicated that the ARR decreased from 1.652 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.422, 1.9192) at 30 to 34 years to 0.559 (95% CI: 0.4988, 0.6265) at 75 to 79 years; the period effect decreased from 1.2204 (95% CI: 1.1148, 1.336) in 1995 to 1999 to 0.608 (95% CI: 0.5515, 0.6704) in 2015 to 2019, with a greater decline in the later period. The cohort effect was unimodal, with the SQC risk value peaking in the 1915 birth cohort and exhibiting a steady decline thereafter. The results of this study suggest that a decrease in the smoking rate may be the reason for the decline in the incidence of SQC, and we observed a similar trend between SQC and the smoking rate in men.
肺癌是全球癌症死亡的主要原因，而鳞状细胞癌（SQC）是台湾第二常见的肺癌组织学类型。本研究旨在探讨台湾 SQC 发病率的长期趋势变化。从台湾癌症登记系统中采用了 1985 年至 2019 年的 SQC 病例；使用 2000 年世界标准人口计算年龄调整发病率。使用 SEER 年龄-时期-队列网络工具估计 SQC 发病率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应的长期趋势。结果表明，台湾的肺癌发病率上升，而 SQC 的发病率在研究期间略有下降。男性的发病率年龄比（ARR）逐渐下降，女性的时期效应变化比男性缓慢。队列效应形成双峰曲线。女性的年百分比变化结果表明，ARR 从 30 至 34 岁的 30 岁降至 34 岁的 34 岁降至 75 至 79 岁的 0.559（95%置信区间（CI）：0.4988，0.6265）；时期效应从 1995 年至 1999 年的 1.2204（95%CI：1.1148，1.336）降至 2015 年至 2019 年的 0.608（95%CI：0.5515，0.6704），后期下降幅度更大。队列效应呈单峰，SQC 风险值在 1915 年出生队列中达到峰值，此后呈稳步下降趋势。本研究结果表明，吸烟率的下降可能是 SQC 发病率下降的原因，我们观察到 SQC 与男性吸烟率之间存在类似的趋势。
