Li Yi, Fang Bin, Li Yurui, Feng Weilun, Yin Xu
School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023 China.
Research Center of New Urbanization and Land Problem, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023 China.
Chin Geogr Sci. 2023;33(2):287-303. doi: 10.1007/s11769-023-1334-4. Epub 2023 Jan 9.
Cultivated land pressure represents a direct reflection of grain security. Existing relevant studies rarely approached the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure or the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors from the level of economic zones. Taking the Huaihai Economic Zone (HEZ), China for case analysis, this study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of cultivated land pressure in diverse periods from 2000 to 2018 based on a modified cultivated land pressure index and spatial correlation models. On this basis, it explored the influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the late stage of the study using geographical detector as well as multi-scale geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated that: 1) in the study period, the global cultivated land pressure index of the study area decreased gradually, but cultivated land pressure increased locally in a significant way, especially in the central and southern Shandong Province; 2) the spatial pattern of cultivated land pressure manifested global clustering features. Hot and secondary-hot spots presented a narrowing and clustering trend, whereas cold and secondary-cold spots manifested a spreading and clustering trend; 3) average slope, the proportion of non-grain crops, population urbanization rate, and multiple cropping index have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure. The former three factors were positively correlated with cultivated land pressure, and the last factor was negatively correlated with cultivated land pressure; and 4) the amount of cultivated land has increased in the central and southern Shandong Province through land consolidation which, nonetheless, failed to improve the grain production. In regards to major grain producing areas similar to the HEZ in China, the authors suggest that great importance should be given to the balance of the quality and quantity of cultivated land, the optimization of agricultural production factors and the rational control of non-grain crops, thus providing a powerful guarantee for grain security in China.
耕地压力是粮食安全的直接反映。现有的相关研究很少从经济区层面探讨耕地压力的时空格局及其影响因素的空间异质性。本研究以中国淮海经济区为例，基于修正后的耕地压力指数和空间相关模型，调查了2000年至2018年不同时期耕地压力的时空格局。在此基础上，利用地理探测器和多尺度地理加权回归模型，探讨了研究后期耕地压力空间分异的影响因素。结果表明：1）研究期内，研究区的全球耕地压力指数逐渐下降，但局部耕地压力显著增加，尤其是在山东省中部和南部；2）耕地压力的空间格局呈现出全局集聚特征。热点和次热点呈现出缩小和集聚趋势，而冷点和次冷点则呈现出扩散和集聚趋势；3）平均坡度、非粮食作物比例、人口城镇化率和复种指数对耕地压力的空间分异有显著影响。前三个因素与耕地压力呈正相关，最后一个因素与耕地压力呈负相关；4）山东省中部和南部通过土地整治增加了耕地面积，但未能提高粮食产量。对于中国类似于淮海经济区的主要粮食产区，作者建议应高度重视耕地质量和数量的平衡、农业生产要素的优化以及非粮食作物的合理控制，从而为中国的粮食安全提供有力保障。
