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伊朗基于可再生能源的可持续制氢战略评估的不确定性下集成多准则决策框架。

An integrated multi-criteria decision-making framework under uncertainty for evaluating sustainable hydrogen production strategies based on renewable energies in Iran.

作者信息

Hosseini Dehshiri Seyyed Jalaladdin, Amiri Maghsoud

机构信息

Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(16):46058-46073. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25489-5. Epub 2023 Jan 30.

Abstract

Due to population growth and the expansion of different industries, Iran is confronted with the issue of energy and hydrogen generation for various sectors. According to research, Iran has much potential for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Renewable energy is critical for meeting the needs of various industries by producing energy and hydrogen. As a result, this study identified and analyzed development plans for hydrogen production from Iran's renewable energies using SWOT analysis and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. The Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) approach was used to weigh the criteria and sub-criteria, and power generation cost was identified as the most critical sub-criteria. Then, the identified strategies were ranked using the gray additive ratio assessment (ARAS-Gray) method. Following that, the gray technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS-G), the gray complex proportional assessment (COPRAS-G), and the gray simple additive weighting (SAW-G) techniques were used to validate the results. The finding revealed that the strategy of cooperation and coordination between energy investing companies and various industries in Iran to develop hydrogen projects at a minimum cost was recognized as the most efficient strategy in all procedures. As a result, with the cooperation and coordination of companies and various industries in Iran, clean energy and fuel can be produced at a low cost using renewable sources. By implementing this strategy, the fluctuations in energy production caused by renewable sources will be eliminated, and the energy and hydrogen requirements of various industries will be met.

摘要

由于人口增长和不同行业的扩张,伊朗面临着为各个部门提供能源和制氢的问题。根据研究,伊朗在风能和太阳能等可再生能源方面具有很大潜力。可再生能源对于通过生产能源和氢气来满足各个行业的需求至关重要。因此,本研究使用SWOT分析和多准则决策(MCDM)技术,识别并分析了伊朗利用可再生能源制氢的发展计划。采用逐步权重评估比率分析(SWARA)方法对准则和子准则进行加权,发电成本被确定为最关键的子准则。然后,使用灰色加性比率评估(ARAS-Gray)方法对确定的策略进行排序。随后,使用灰色理想解相似排序法(TOPSIS-G)、灰色复杂比例评估法(COPRAS-G)和灰色简单加性加权法(SAW-G)对结果进行验证。研究结果表明,伊朗能源投资公司与各行业之间以最低成本合作开发氢能项目的策略在所有程序中被认为是最有效的策略。因此,通过伊朗公司与各行业的合作与协调,可以利用可再生资源低成本生产清洁能源和燃料。通过实施这一策略,可再生能源导致的能源生产波动将被消除,各行业的能源和氢气需求将得到满足。

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