Salmonella Prevalence Is Strongly Associated with Spatial Factors while Listeria monocytogenes Prevalence Is Strongly Associated with Temporal Factors on Virginia Produce Farms.

The heterogeneity of produce production environments complicates the development of universal strategies for managing preharvest produce safety risks. Understanding pathogen ecology in different produce-growing regions is important for developing targeted mitigation strategies. This study aimed to identify environmental and spatiotemporal factors associated with isolating Salmonella and from environmental samples collected from 10 Virginia produce farms. Soil ( = 400), drag swab ( = 400), and irrigation water ( = 120) samples were tested for Salmonella and , and results were confirmed by PCR. Salmonella serovar and species were identified by the Kauffmann-White-Le Minor scheme and partial sequencing, respectively. Conditional forest analysis and Bayesian mixed models were used to characterize associations between environmental factors and the likelihood of isolating Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes (LM), and other targets (e.g., spp. and Salmonella enterica serovar Newport). Surrogate trees were used to visualize hierarchical associations identified by the forest analyses. Salmonella and LM prevalence was 5.3% (49/920) and 2.3% (21/920), respectively. The likelihood of isolating Salmonella was highest in water samples collected from the Eastern Shore of Virginia with a dew point of >9.4°C. The likelihood of isolating LM was highest in water samples collected in winter from sites where <36% of the land use within 122 m was forest wetland cover. Conditional forest results were consistent with the mixed models, which also found that the likelihood of detecting Salmonella and LM differed between sample type, region, and season. These findings identified factors that increased the likelihood of isolating Salmonella- and LM-positive samples in produce production environments and support preharvest mitigation strategies on a regional scale. This study sought to examine different growing regions across the state of Virginia and to determine how factors associated with pathogen prevalence may differ between regions. Spatial and temporal data were modeled to identify factors associated with an increased pathogen likelihood in various on-farm sources. The findings of the study show that prevalence of Salmonella and L. monocytogenes is low overall in the produce preharvest environment but does vary by space (e.g., region in Virginia) and time (e.g., season), and the likelihood of pathogen-positive samples is influenced by different spatial and temporal factors. Therefore, the results support regional or scale-dependent food safety standards and guidance documents for controlling hazards to minimize risk. This study also suggests that water source assessments are important tools for developing monitoring programs and mitigation measures, as spatiotemporal factors differ on a regional scale.