First assessment of Iranian pomegranate germplasm using targeted metabolites and morphological traits to develop the core collection and modeling of the current and future spatial distribution under climate change conditions.

Pomegranate has been considered a medicinal plant due to its rich nutrients and bioactive compounds. Since environmental conditions affect the amount and composition of metabolites, selecting suitable locations for cultivation would be vital to achieve optimal production. In this study, data on the diversity of targeted metabolites and morphological traits of 152 Iranian pomegranate genotypes were collected and combined in order to establish the first core collection. The multivariate analyses were conducted including principal component analysis (PCA), and cluster analysis. In addition, the current and future geographical distribution of pomegranate in Iran was predicted to identify suitable locations using the MaxEnt model. The results showed high diversity in the studied morphological and metabolic traits. The PCA results indicated that FFS, NFT, JA, and AA are the most important traits in discriminating the studied genotypes. A constructed core collection using maximization strategy consisted of 20 genotypes and accounted for 13.16% of the entire collection. Shannon-Weaver diversity index of a core collection was similar or greater than the entire collection. Evaluation of the core collection using four parameters of MD, VD, CR, and VR also indicated the maintenance of the genetic diversity of the original set. According to the MaxEnt model, altitude, average temperature of coldest quarter, and isothertmality were the key factors for the distribution of pomegranate. The most suitable areas for pomegranate cultivation were also determined which were located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. The geographic distribution of pomegranate in the future showed that the main provinces of pomegranate cultivation would be less affected by climatic conditions by the middle of the century. The results of this study provide valuable information for selection of elite genotypes to develop the breeding programs to obtain the cultivars with the highest levels of metabolic compounds for pharmaceutical purposes, as well as identification of the most suitable agro-ecological zones for orchard establishment.