US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, USA.
US Department of Defense Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Apr 15;332:117383. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117383. Epub 2023 Feb 1.
Freshwater invasive species, such as the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis), are causing over $1 billion USD annually in damages to water infrastructure, recreation, and the environment. Once established, quagga and other dreissenid mussels are extremely difficult to eradicate. Preventing the spread of these invasives is critical and of high management concern. Invasive dreissenid establishment is predicated upon both successful dispersal from a source and suitable habitat in the uninfested waterbody to which they are transported. Recreational boaters have become predominant dispersal vectors making it possible to forecast the risk of invasion of waterbodies for more targeted management and prevention. We developed an integrated mussel dispersal model that couples a constrained gravity model and habitat suitability model to forecast future invasions. The model simulates boater movement between lakes, the likelihood of boats transporting mussels, and the likelihood that those mussels survive in the environmental conditions of the new lake. Model output was most sensitive to changes in boater threshold, then buffer zones, while not as sensitive to changes in habitat suitability. From an initial infested source pool of 11 among 402 Western inland US lakes, we forecast additional lakes infested in several possible simulation scenarios. Constraining movement reduced connectivity between waterbodies with amplifying effects at different distance levels. This model can be used to determine waterbodies most at risk for dreissenid mussel invasion and to highlight the importance of multifactor integrated models in environmental management.
淡水入侵物种，如斑马贻贝（Dreissena rostriformis bugensis），每年给美国的水基础设施、娱乐和环境造成超过 10 亿美元的损失。斑马贻贝和其他双盘贻贝类贻贝一旦建立，就极难根除。防止这些入侵物种的传播至关重要，也是管理部门高度关注的问题。这些入侵双盘贻贝类的建立取决于它们从源地成功扩散以及它们被运输到的未受感染水体中的适宜栖息地。休闲划船者已成为主要的扩散媒介，这使得预测水体的入侵风险成为可能，以便更有针对性地进行管理和预防。我们开发了一种综合贻贝扩散模型，该模型结合了约束重力模型和栖息地适宜性模型，以预测未来的入侵。该模型模拟了船只在湖泊之间的移动、船只运输贻贝的可能性以及这些贻贝在新湖泊的环境条件下生存的可能性。模型输出对划船者阈值的变化最敏感，其次是缓冲区，而对栖息地适宜性的变化则不那么敏感。从最初受感染的 402 个美国西部内陆湖泊中的 11 个来源池中，我们预测了在几种可能的模拟情景下，更多的湖泊将受到感染。限制运动减少了水体之间的连通性，在不同的距离水平上产生了放大效应。该模型可用于确定最容易受到双盘贻贝类贻贝入侵的水体，并强调在环境管理中多因素综合模型的重要性。
