Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Gestión Forestal Sostenible (iuFOR), Universidad de Valladolid, Spain; Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), Spain.
Dpt. Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), Spain; Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 May 1;871:161917. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161917. Epub 2023 Feb 1.
Habitat degradation and climate change are major threats to the long-term persistence of reptile populations. However, their roles on primary productivity instability remain unclear at certain scales. Besides, the design of protected areas has often overlooked reptiles or assumed that their ecological requirements are represented under the umbrella of more charismatic species. Here, we assess the vulnerability of areas of high diversity of reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula to global change using data from satellite imagery. We focused on primary productivity, climate and land-use change because they are indicators of environmental variability that might impair ecosystem functioning and alter wildlife communities. We used linear regressions to detect monotonic temporal trends in primary productivity (through the enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate (mean temperature and accumulated precipitation) at two spatial resolutions (10-km UTM squares and CORINE land-cover polygon level) over the period 2000-2020. We also determined how the strength of land-use and climate change affected the intensity of change in primary productivity at both spatial scales with multivariate linear regressions. We identified 339 hotspots (10-km UTM squares) and monotonic increments of temperature, EVI or both occurred in 43 %, 16 % and 22 % of them, respectively. Positive trends of the EVI were related to increasing temperatures and changes in shrubland and forest cover. Within the hotspots with monotonic increments in EVI and temperature, EVI increments occurred in 65 % of the CORINE polygons that did not change their land-cover type, with stronger increases in tree crops. Finally, the Natura 2000 network provides only moderate protection to reptile hotspots, being most of the vegetation types relatively underrepresented. The proportion of forest and shrubland protected by the Natura 2000 network was higher in hotspots where EVI changed. Our procedures are relevant to prioritize hotspots requiring ground monitoring that allows economic and time savings.
生境退化和气候变化是威胁爬行动物种群长期生存的主要因素。然而，它们在某些尺度上对初级生产力不稳定性的作用仍不清楚。此外，保护区的设计往往忽略了爬行动物，或者假设它们的生态需求可以在更具魅力的物种的保护伞下得到体现。在这里，我们使用卫星图像数据评估伊比利亚半岛高多样性爬行动物地区对全球变化的脆弱性。我们专注于初级生产力、气候和土地利用变化，因为它们是环境变异性的指标，可能会损害生态系统功能并改变野生动物群落。我们使用线性回归来检测 2000-2020 年期间，在两个空间分辨率（10 公里 UTM 正方形和 CORINE 土地覆盖多边形水平）下，初级生产力（通过增强植被指数 EVI）和气候（平均温度和累积降水量）的单调时间趋势。我们还使用多元线性回归确定了土地利用和气候变化的强度如何在这两个空间尺度上影响初级生产力变化的强度。我们确定了 339 个热点（10 公里 UTM 正方形），其中 43%、16%和 22%的热点分别出现了温度、EVI 或两者的单调递增。EVI 的正趋势与温度升高和灌木林地和森林覆盖的变化有关。在 EVI 和温度单调递增的热点中，EVI 递增发生在 65%的 CORINE 多边形中，这些多边形没有改变其土地覆盖类型，而树木作物的增幅更大。最后，Natura 2000 网络只为爬行动物热点提供适度的保护，大多数植被类型相对代表性不足。在 EVI 发生变化的热点中，Natura 2000 网络保护的森林和灌木林地比例更高。我们的程序对于优先考虑需要地面监测的热点是相关的，这可以节省经济和时间。
