Division of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Preventive Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN.
J Biopharm Stat. 2024 Jan 2;34(1):1-15. doi: 10.1080/10543406.2023.2170403. Epub 2023 Feb 5.
Cancer immunotherapy trials are frequently characterized by delayed treatment effects such that the proportional hazards assumption is violated and the log-rank test suffers a substantial loss of statistical power. To increase the efficacy of the trial design, a variety of weighted log-rank tests have been proposed for fixed sample and group sequential trial designs. However, in such a group sequential design, it is often not recommended for futility interim monitoring due to possible delayed treatment effect which could result a high false-negative rate. To resolve this problem, we propose a group sequential design using a piecewise weighted log-rank test which provides an event-driven approach based on number of events after the delayed time. That is, the interim looks will not be conducted until the planned number of events observed after the delay time. Thus, it avoids the possibility of false-negative rate due to the delayed treatment effect. Furthermore, with an event-driven approach, the proposed group sequential design is robust against the underlying survival, accrual and censoring distributions. The group sequential designs using Fleming-Harrington-() weighted log-rank test and a new weighted log-rank test are also discussed.
癌症免疫疗法试验通常具有延迟的治疗效果,以至于违反了比例风险假设,对数秩检验的统计功效会大幅降低。为了提高试验设计的效果,已经提出了各种加权对数秩检验,用于固定样本量和分组序贯试验设计。然而,在这种分组序贯设计中,由于可能存在延迟的治疗效果,通常不建议进行无效性中期监测,因为这可能导致高假阴性率。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种使用分段加权对数秩检验的分组序贯设计,该设计提供了一种基于延迟后事件数量的事件驱动方法。也就是说,只有在延迟时间后观察到计划的事件数量后,才会进行中期检查。因此,它避免了由于治疗效果延迟而导致假阴性率的可能性。此外,采用事件驱动方法,所提出的分组序贯设计对基础生存、入组和删失分布具有稳健性。还讨论了使用 Fleming-Harrington-()加权对数秩检验和新加权对数秩检验的分组序贯设计。