Research and Innovation Department, International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA), Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 6;18(2):e0269271. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269271. eCollection 2023.
Assessing the economic impact of sand and dust storms provides critical insights to policy development and reforms; a subject that is gaining more attention as risk management becomes the dominant approach for hazard mitigation policies. To assess the causal impact of sand and dust storms on agriculture, specifically on crop and livestock revenue and physical production, random year-to-year variations in dust exposure were analyzed using a fixed effect regression. To complete this analysis, weather and climate data from the on-ground meteorological stations was combined with the household level socioeconomic surveys conducted by Mongolia's National Statistics Office (NSO) over a decade. The descriptive statistics of the meteorological data collected over the eight years period show that, on average, 29 dust events have occurred every year across the country, with greater variation among provinces (Aimags) and regions, reaching up to 108 events in a year in some provinces. The overall trend reveals a slight decrease in the dust events from 2009 to 2019. The econometric results show that value of crop and livestock production (gross income) and physical yields significantly decline in response to higher frequencies of sand and dust storms events. During this period, Mongolia experienced a 2.7% decline in crop revenue as a result of additional sand and dust storms. Assuming 2.7% constant decline in revenues across all agricultural sub-sectors and regions or Aimags, this could lead to about $37.8 million in losses to the economy, which is equivalent to about 0.27% of the national GDP of Mongolia. Increases in the frequency of sand and dust storms could reduce agricultural productivity by between 1.5% to 24%, depending on the crop. Estimates from the modelling exercise are robust to potential endogeneity bias in the measure of sand and dust storms; different specification and identification approaches accounting for the endogeneity bias consistently reveal negative and qualitatively similar impacts of sand and dust storms on crop and livestock productivity.
评估风沙活动的经济影响可为政策制定和改革提供重要参考，随着风险管理成为灾害缓解政策的主导方法，这一议题正受到越来越多的关注。为了评估风沙活动对农业的因果影响，特别是对农作物和牲畜收入及实物产量的影响，本研究采用固定效应回归分析了尘埃暴露的随机年度变化。为了完成这项分析，研究人员将地面气象站的天气和气候数据与蒙古国家统计局（NSO）十年来进行的家庭层面社会经济调查相结合。在八年期间收集的气象数据的描述性统计数据显示，该国平均每年发生 29 次沙尘事件，各省（盟）和地区之间的差异较大，有些省份一年中沙尘事件多达 108 次。总体趋势显示，2009 年至 2019 年，沙尘事件略有减少。计量经济学结果表明，农作物和牲畜产量（毛收入）和实物产量随着风沙活动频率的增加而显著下降。在此期间，由于额外的风沙活动，蒙古的农作物收入减少了 2.7%。假设所有农业子部门和地区或盟的收入持续减少 2.7%，这可能导致经济损失约 3780 万美元，相当于蒙古国民生产总值的 0.27%。风沙活动频率的增加可能会使农业生产力降低 1.5%至 24%，具体取决于作物种类。模型测算结果对风沙活动衡量指标中的潜在内生性偏差具有稳健性；不同的规范和识别方法一致地表明，风沙活动对农作物和牲畜生产力具有负向且定性相似的影响。
