German Diabetes Center, Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, D-40225 Düsseldorf, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Munich-Neuherberg, Germany.
University of Ulm, Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, ZIBMT, Albert-Einstein-Allee 41, D-89081 Ulm, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Munich-Neuherberg, Germany.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2023 Mar;197:110559. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2023.110559. Epub 2023 Feb 8.
To determine whether the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), autoantibody-negative diabetes, and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diabetes onset in 2020 and 2021 changed when compared to long-standing trends.
Our study is based on diabetes manifestation data of the 0.5-<18-year-old children/adolescents from the German multicenter Diabetes Prospective Follow-up Registry. Based on long-term pre-pandemic trends from 2011 to 2019, we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for T1D and DKA, and prevalence rate ratios (PRR) regarding autoantibody status with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the years 2020 and 2021 (observed versus predicted rates), using multivariable negative binomial or beta-binomial regression, respectively.
We analyzed data of 30,840 children and adolescents with new-onset T1D. The observed incidences were significantly higher than the predicted incidences (IRR 1.13 [1.08-1.19]; IRR 1.20 [1.15-1.26]). The prevalence of autoantibody-negative diabetes did not change (PRR 0.91 [0.75-1.10]; PRR 1.03 [0.86-1.24]). The incidence of DKA during the pandemic was higher than predicted (IRR 1.34 [1.23-1.46]; IRR 1.37 [1.26-1.49]).
An increase in the incidences of T1D and DKA, but not of autoantibody-negative diabetes was observed during both pandemic years. Further monitoring and efforts for DKA prevention at onset are necessary.
确定与长期趋势相比,2020 年和 2021 年糖尿病发病时 1 型糖尿病(T1D)、自身抗体阴性糖尿病和糖尿病酮症酸中毒(DKA)的发生率是否发生了变化。
我们的研究基于德国多中心糖尿病前瞻性随访登记处的 0.5-<18 岁儿童/青少年的糖尿病表现数据。根据 2011 年至 2019 年的长期大流行前趋势,我们使用多变量负二项式或贝塔二项式回归,分别估算了 T1D 和 DKA 的调整发病率比(IRR)以及自身抗体状态的患病率比(PRR),95%置信区间(CI)为 2020 年和 2021 年(观察到的与预测的比率)。
我们分析了 30840 名新发 T1D 儿童和青少年的数据。观察到的发病率明显高于预测的发病率(IRR 1.13 [1.08-1.19];IRR 1.20 [1.15-1.26])。自身抗体阴性糖尿病的患病率没有变化(PRR 0.91 [0.75-1.10];PRR 1.03 [0.86-1.24])。大流行期间 DKA 的发病率高于预测值(IRR 1.34 [1.23-1.46];IRR 1.37 [1.26-1.49])。
在这两年的大流行期间,T1D 和 DKA 的发病率增加,而自身抗体阴性糖尿病的发病率没有增加。有必要进一步监测并努力预防发病时的 DKA。