Aghababaeian Hamidreza, Ostadtaghizadeh Abbas, Ardalan Ali, Asgary Ali, Akbary Mehry, Yekaninejad Mir Saeed, Sharafkhani Rahim, Stephens Carolyn
Center for Climate Change and Health research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Health Insights. 2023 Jan 30;17:11786302231151538. doi: 10.1177/11786302231151538. eCollection 2023.
We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019.
We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days.
There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults.
However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.
我们旨在评估2013年至2019年期间热浪对伊朗迪兹富尔市非意外、心血管和呼吸系统原因导致的每日死亡的影响。
我们收集了每日环境温度和死亡率，并通过结合研究期间每个月或30年以来日温度⩾第90百分位数且持续时间⩾2天和3天来定义2种类型的热浪。我们使用分布滞后非线性模型来研究每种热浪定义类型与非意外、心血管和呼吸系统原因导致的死亡之间的关联，滞后时间长达13天。
尽管热浪增加了心血管原因导致的死亡风险并降低了呼吸系统原因导致的死亡风险，但该地区没有明显的相关性。另一方面，热浪发生日的总非意外死亡率风险显著高于正常日。在主要影响方面，热浪与总非意外死亡率风险有显著关系（在第一种热浪定义中，滞后累积超额风险（CER）为10.4，在第二种热浪定义中，滞后CER值分别为12.4、29.2和38.8）。此外，在附加影响方面，热浪与总非意外死亡率风险有显著关系（在第一种热浪定义中，滞后CER为1.79和4.11，在第二种热浪定义中，滞后CER值分别为7.76、18.35和24.87）。此外，热浪似乎也导致了男性群体以及老年人非意外死亡的累积超额风险。
然而，结果表明，即使在习惯于极端炎热的人群中，热浪也可能对健康产生有害影响。因此，监测热浪的早期预警系统应向民众，尤其是最脆弱群体提供必要的预警。
