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三十年来伊朗干湿期变化的评估,气候变化的一个特征。

Three-decade assessment of dry and wet spells change across Iran, a fingerprint of climate change.

机构信息

Department of Irrigation, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, 84156-83111, Iran.

Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 4300, 90014, Oulu, Finland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Feb 18;13(1):2888. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-30040-0.

Abstract

Extended periods of hydro-climate extremes with excessive or scarce rainfall associated with high or low temperatures have resulted in an imbalanced water cycle and inefficient socio-economic systems in several regions of Iran. However, there is a lack of comprehensive investigations on short-term to long-term variations in timing, duration, and temperature of wet/dry spells. This study bridges the current gap through a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical climatic data (1959-2018). Results indicated that the negative tendency of the accumulated rainfall (- 0.16/ - 0.35 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) in 2- to 6-day wet spells had made significant contributions to the ongoing downward trend in annual rainfall (- 0.5/ - 1.5 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) owing to a warmer climate condition. Warmer wet spells are likely responsible for precipitation patterns changes in snow-dominated stations since their wet spells temperature has more than threefold growth with increasing distance to coasts. The most detected trends in climatic patterns have started in the last two decades and become more severe from 2009 to 2018. Our results confirm the alteration of precipitation features across Iran due to anthropogenic climatic change, and suggest expected increase in air temperature would likely result in further dry and warm conditions over the coming decades.

摘要

与高温或低温相关的长时间极端水热条件导致降雨过多或过少,从而使伊朗多个地区的水循环失去平衡,社会经济系统效率低下。然而,目前缺乏对干湿期的时间、持续时间和温度的短期到长期变化的综合调查。本研究通过对历史气候数据(1959-2018 年)的综合统计分析,弥补了这一空白。结果表明,在过去 60 年/30 年中,2-6 天湿期的累积降雨量呈负趋势(-0.16/-0.35 毫米/年),这对年降雨量的持续下降趋势(过去 60 年/30 年分别为-0.5/-1.5 毫米/年)做出了重大贡献,这是由于气候变暖的条件。由于气候变暖,以雪为主的观测站的湿期温度增长了三倍多,与海岸的距离也越来越远,这可能是导致这些观测站降水模式变化的原因。在过去二十年中,最明显的气候模式趋势已经开始显现,而且从 2009 年到 2018 年,这些趋势变得更加严重。我们的研究结果证实了伊朗降水特征因人为气候变化而发生的变化,并表明,未来几十年,气温升高可能会导致更加干燥和温暖的条件。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b009/9938875/ab3679dcf923/41598_2023_30040_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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