Department of Criminal Justice, Kutztown University.
Law Hum Behav. 2023 Jun;47(3):436-447. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000525. Epub 2023 Feb 20.
The purpose of this study was to determine whether receiving counseling services reduced future offending in a group of seriously delinquent youths through a process of chaining. In this process, a youth's perceived certainty of punishment and an increase in their cognitive agency or control mediated the services-offending relationship.
The main hypothesis was that where perceptions of certainty preceded cognitive agency beliefs (perceived certainty → cognitive agency), the (target) pathway would be significant, and where cognitive agency beliefs preceded perceptions of certainty (cognitive agency → perceived certainty), the (comparison) pathway would be nonsignificant. The difference between the target and comparison pathways was also predicted to be significant.
This study modeled change in 1,354 (1,170 boys, 184 girls) justice-involved youths from the Pathways to Desistance study. The number of counseling services accessed by a participant within 6 months of the baseline (Wave 1) interview served as the independent variable, and self-reported offending 12-18 months later (Wave 4) served as the dependent variable. Perceived certainty of punishment and cognitive agency were cross-lagged at Waves 2 and 3 and served as mediators.
Consistent with the research hypothesis, results showed that the total indirect effect from services to delinquency through perceived certainty and cognitive agency was significant, the total indirect effect from services to cognitive agency to perceived certainty was nonsignificant, and the difference between the two effects was significant.
The results of this study suggest that turning points do not have to be major life events to bring about desistance and that chaining in which perceptions of certainty precede cognitive agency beliefs may play a vital role in the change process. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
本研究旨在通过连锁过程确定接受咨询服务是否会减少一群严重犯罪少年未来的犯罪行为。在这个过程中，少年对惩罚的确定性感知以及他们认知能力或控制能力的增强，在服务与犯罪之间起到了中介作用。
主要假设是，如果确定性感知先于认知机构信念（确定性感知→认知机构），则（目标）路径将是显著的，而如果认知机构信念先于确定性感知（认知机构→确定性感知），则（比较）路径将是不显著的。还预测目标路径和比较路径之间的差异将是显著的。
本研究对来自“停止犯罪途径研究”的 1354 名（1170 名男孩，184 名女孩）涉及司法的少年的变化进行建模。参与者在基线（第 1 波）访谈后 6 个月内接受的咨询服务次数作为自变量，而自我报告的 12-18 个月后的犯罪行为作为因变量。惩罚确定性感知和认知机构在第 2 波和第 3 波进行交叉滞后，并作为中介变量。
与研究假设一致，结果表明，通过确定性感知和认知机构从服务到犯罪的总间接效应是显著的，从服务到认知机构到确定性感知的总间接效应是不显著的，并且这两种效应之间的差异是显著的。
这项研究的结果表明，转折点不一定是重大的生活事件才能导致停止犯罪，而确定性感知先于认知机构信念的连锁可能在变化过程中起着至关重要的作用。
