Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 14;20(4):3316. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043316.
Human activities are considered as the main driving forces of land use/land cover (LULC) variation at city scales. Monitoring the dynamic variation of LULC and its socioeconomic driving forces helps to reveal the response of LULC change to human activities and land use policies. However, this issue remains poorly understood. In this study, the spatiotemporal transitions among different LULC types during nearly three decades in Wuhan, China, were modeled in detail using the transfer matrix method. Ten socioeconomic factors indicating the population level, economic condition and social development were selected to quantitatively explain LULC variation. Some typical policies were discussed for the LULC transitions. The results showed that construction land was detected to continuously increase, with the fastest change rate of 560.48% during the 29-year period. Farmland area significantly declined by 1855 km, decreasing by 31.21%, contributing to 86.14% of the area increase in construction lands. To some extent, the net area increase in construction land was at the expense of farmland area. All 10 indicators considered in this study were positively correlated with the construction land area (R of 0.7830.970) and negatively correlated with farmland area (R of 0.8610.979). In general, social and economic development contributed considerably to urban expansion and cultivated land loss. The largest contributors were non-agricultural population and economic conditions (secondary industry output, primary industry output and local revenues). Governmental guidance and behavior were considered the original impetus for LULC transition, while the impact of land use policies and human activities on LULC transitions varied across the subperiods. These findings provide decision-making support for appropriate urban planning and efficient land use management.
人类活动被认为是城市尺度土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）变化的主要驱动力。监测 LULC 的动态变化及其社会经济驱动因素有助于揭示 LULC 变化对人类活动和土地利用政策的响应。然而，这一问题仍未得到充分理解。本研究采用转移矩阵法详细模拟了中国武汉市近 30 年来不同土地利用类型的时空转换。选择了 10 个社会经济因素，用于定量解释土地利用变化，这些因素表明了人口水平、经济状况和社会发展。还讨论了一些典型政策对土地利用变化的影响。结果表明，建设用地持续增加，29 年间的变化率最快，达到 560.48%。耕地面积显著减少了 1855 平方公里，减少了 31.21%，占建设用地面积增加的 86.14%。在一定程度上，建设用地的净面积增加是以耕地面积的减少为代价的。本研究考虑的 10 个指标均与建设用地面积呈正相关（R 值为 0.7830.970），与耕地面积呈负相关（R 值为 0.8610.979）。总的来说，社会经济发展对城市扩张和耕地损失有很大贡献。最大的贡献者是非农业人口和经济条件（第二产业产值、第一产业产值和地方财政收入）。政府的指导和行为被认为是土地利用变化的原始动力，而土地利用政策和人类活动对土地利用变化的影响在不同子时期有所不同。这些发现为合理的城市规划和高效的土地利用管理提供了决策支持。
