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模拟城市疫苗工厂周围生物气溶胶泄漏的感染风险与应急疏散

Modeling the infection risk and emergency evacuation from bioaerosol leakage around an urban vaccine factory.

作者信息

Liu Zhijian, Cao Hongwei, Hu Chenxing, Wu Minnan, Zhang Siqi, He Junzhou, Jiang Chuan

机构信息

School of Energy and Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, 071003 China.

School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China.

出版信息

NPJ Clim Atmos Sci. 2023;6(1):6. doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00342-1. Epub 2023 Feb 17.

Abstract

Mounting interest in modeling outdoor diffusion and transmission of bioaerosols due to the prevalence of COVID-19 in the urban environment has led to better knowledge of the issues concerning exposure risk and evacuation planning. In this study, the dispersion and deposition dynamics of bioaerosols around a vaccine factory were numerically investigated under various thermal conditions and leakage rates. To assess infection risk at the pedestrian level, the improved Wells-Riley equation was used. To predict the evacuation path, Dijkstra's algorithm, a derived greedy algorithm based on the improved Wells-Riley equation, was applied. The results show that, driven by buoyancy force, the deposition of bioaerosols can reach 80 m on the windward sidewall of high-rise buildings. Compared with stable thermal stratification, the infection risk of unstable thermal stratification in the upstream portion of the study area can increase by 5.53% and 9.92% under a low and high leakage rate, respectively. A greater leakage rate leads to higher infection risk but a similar distribution of high-risk regions. The present work provides a promising approach for infection risk assessment and evacuation planning for the emergency response to urban bioaerosol leakage.

摘要

由于新冠病毒在城市环境中的普遍存在,人们对生物气溶胶在室外的扩散和传播建模的兴趣日益浓厚,这使得人们对暴露风险和疏散规划等问题有了更深入的了解。在本研究中,对疫苗工厂周围生物气溶胶在不同热条件和泄漏率下的扩散和沉降动态进行了数值研究。为了评估行人层面的感染风险,使用了改进的威尔斯-莱利方程。为了预测疏散路径,应用了基于改进的威尔斯-莱利方程推导的贪心算法——迪杰斯特拉算法。结果表明,在浮力作用下,生物气溶胶在高层建筑迎风侧壁上的沉降距离可达80米。与稳定的热分层相比,在低泄漏率和高泄漏率下,研究区域上游部分不稳定热分层的感染风险分别可增加5.53%和9.92%。更大的泄漏率会导致更高的感染风险,但高风险区域的分布相似。本研究为城市生物气溶胶泄漏应急响应中的感染风险评估和疏散规划提供了一种有前景的方法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cff7/9937520/174e42054267/41612_2023_342_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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