Van Leuken J P G, Swart A N, Havelaar A H, Van Pul A, Van der Hoek W, Heederik D
Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Microb Risk Anal. 2016 Jan;1:19-39. doi: 10.1016/j.mran.2015.07.002. Epub 2015 Jul 26.
In this review we discuss studies that applied atmospheric dispersion models (ADM) to bioaerosols that are pathogenic to humans and livestock in the context of risk assessment studies. Traditionally, ADMs have been developed to describe the atmospheric transport of chemical pollutants, radioactive matter, dust, and particulate matter. However, they have also enabled researchers to simulate bioaerosol dispersion. To inform risk assessment, the aims of this review were fourfold, namely (1) to describe the most important physical processes related to ADMs and pathogen transport, (2) to discuss studies that focused on the application of ADMs to pathogenic bioaerosols, (3) to discuss emission and inactivation rate parameterisations, and (4) to discuss methods for conversion of concentrations to infection probabilities (concerning quantitative microbial risk assessment). The studies included human, livestock, and industrial sources. Important factors for dispersion included wind speed, atmospheric stability, topographic effects, and deposition. Inactivation was mainly governed by humidity, temperature, and ultraviolet radiation. A majority of the reviewed studies, however, lacked quantitative analyses and application of full quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Qualitative conclusions based on geographical dispersion maps and threshold doses were encountered frequently. Thus, to improve risk assessment for future outbreaks and releases, we recommended determining well-quantified emission and inactivation rates and applying dosimetry and dose-response models to estimate infection probabilities in the population at risk.
在本综述中，我们讨论了在风险评估研究背景下，将大气扩散模型（ADM）应用于对人类和牲畜致病的生物气溶胶的研究。传统上，开发大气扩散模型是为了描述化学污染物、放射性物质、灰尘和颗粒物的大气传输。然而，它们也使研究人员能够模拟生物气溶胶的扩散。为了为风险评估提供信息，本综述的目的有四个，即（1）描述与大气扩散模型和病原体传输相关的最重要物理过程，（2）讨论专注于将大气扩散模型应用于致病性生物气溶胶的研究，（3）讨论排放和失活率参数化，以及（4）讨论将浓度转换为感染概率的方法（关于定量微生物风险评估）。这些研究包括人类、牲畜和工业源。扩散的重要因素包括风速、大气稳定性、地形效应和沉降。失活主要受湿度、温度和紫外线辐射控制。然而，大多数综述研究缺乏定量分析和完整定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）的应用。基于地理扩散图和阈值剂量的定性结论经常出现。因此，为了改进对未来疫情爆发和释放的风险评估，我们建议确定量化良好的排放和失活率，并应用剂量测定法和剂量反应模型来估计高危人群中的感染概率。
