Piboonrungroj Pairach, Wannapan Satawat, Chaiboonsri Chukiat
Chiang Mai University, Thailand.
Sage Open. 2023 Feb 20;13(1):21582440231154803. doi: 10.1177/21582440231154803. eCollection 2023 Jan-Mar.
With the COVID-19 pandemic's complexity and inexorable devastation, this research article attempts to forecast Thailand's economic move forward through gastronomic tourism promotion. The dynamic input-output (I-O) model was the primary method for classifying gastronomic activities in tourism I-O data, which was investigated sector by sector. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports in Bangkok, Thailand, officially gathered the 2017 I-O table. To briefly explain the empirical results, it found that the main sectors of gastronomic tourism that highly impact Thailand's economy are the processing and preserving of foods, other foods, food and beverage serving activities, and other food services. In terms of forecasting during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) based on the dynamic input-output (I-O) model suggests that approximately 1% to 2% of Thailand's gastronomic tourism will be able to contribute to the GDP of this country substantially. By the way, if this research result is significant, then both the private sector and the government sector need to be concerned and promote those sectors as much as they can.
鉴于新冠疫情的复杂性及其造成的无情破坏，本文试图通过推广美食旅游来预测泰国的经济发展方向。动态投入产出（I-O）模型是对旅游I-O数据中的美食活动进行分类的主要方法，该模型对各个部门进行了逐一研究。泰国曼谷的旅游与体育部正式收集了2017年的投入产出表。为简要说明实证结果，研究发现对泰国经济有重大影响的美食旅游主要部门包括食品加工与保存、其他食品、餐饮服务活动以及其他食品服务。在新冠疫情期间进行预测时，基于动态投入产出（I-O）模型的贝叶斯结构时间序列（BSTS）表明，泰国约1%至2%的美食旅游将能够为该国国内生产总值做出重大贡献。顺便说一句，如果这一研究结果意义重大，那么私营部门和政府部门都需要予以关注，并尽可能地推动这些部门的发展。
