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合理的变革性决策

Rational transformative decision-making.

作者信息

Villiger Daniel

机构信息

Institute of Philosophy, Zollikerstrasse 117, 8008 Zürich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Synthese. 2023;201(3):87. doi: 10.1007/s11229-023-04075-9. Epub 2023 Feb 24.

Abstract

According to L. A. Paul (2014), transformative experiences pose a challenge for decision theory, as their subjective value is not epistemically accessible. However, several authors propose that the subjective values of options are often irrelevant to their ranking; in many cases, all we need for rational transformative decision-making are the known non-subjective values. This stance is in conflict with Paul's argument that the subjective value can always swamp the non-subjective value. The approach presented in this paper takes Paul's argument into account and shows how potential swamping can be controlled given that one desires the transformative outcome: If one knows from previous decisions that desired transformative outcomes are associated with positive subjective value and if, in addition, testimony confirms this association for the current decision situation, one can infer that a desired outcome's expected subjective value has a positive valence. Accordingly, one can rationally choose the desired transformative option if its non-subjective value is no lower than the overall value of any other option.

摘要

根据L. A. 保罗(2014年)的观点,变革性经历对决策理论构成了挑战,因为其主观价值在认知上是无法获取的。然而,几位作者提出,选项的主观价值往往与其排序无关;在许多情况下,我们进行理性的变革性决策所需的一切只是已知的非主观价值。这种立场与保罗的论点相冲突,即主观价值总是可以压倒非主观价值。本文提出的方法考虑了保罗的论点,并表明如果一个人渴望变革性结果,那么潜在的压倒效应是可以控制的:如果一个人从之前的决策中知道期望的变革性结果与积极的主观价值相关联,并且此外,证词也证实了当前决策情境中的这种关联,那么一个人就可以推断出期望结果的预期主观价值具有正价。因此,如果其非主观价值不低于任何其他选项的总体价值,一个人就可以理性地选择期望的变革性选项。

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