The heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation on industrial carbon emission efficiency in China using a panel quantile regression.

In order to verify how environmental regulation affects the improvement of urban industrial carbon emission efficiency, this study first measures the balanced panel data of industrial carbon emission efficiency of 282 cities in China from 2003 to 2019, and evaluates the direct and regulating impact of environmental regulation on China's urban industrial carbon emission efficiency. Meanwhile, in order to investigate the potential heterogeneity and asymmetry, the panel quantile regression method is used. The empirical results show that (1) during the period 2003-2016, China's overall industrial carbon emission efficiency showed a upward trend, with a decreasing spatial pattern from the east-central-west-northeast region. At the urban scale in China, environmental regulation has a significant direct effect on industrial carbon emission efficiency, which is lagged and heterogeneous. At the low quantiles, a one-period lag in environmental regulation has a negative effect on the improvement of industrial carbon emission efficiency. At the middle and high quantiles, a one-period lag in environmental regulation has a positive effect on the improvement of industrial carbon emission efficiency. Environmental regulation has a moderating effect on industrial carbon efficiency. With increasing industrial emission efficiency, the positive moderating effect of environmental regulation on the relationship between technological progress and industrial carbon emission efficiency shows a pattern of diminishing marginal benefits. The main contribution of this study is the systematic analysis of the potential heterogeneity and asymmetry of the direct and moderating effects of environmental regulation on the industrial carbon emission efficiency at the city scale in China by using panel quantile regression method.