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奶牛群跛足的成本:一种综合生物经济建模方法。

Cost of lameness in dairy herds: An integrated bioeconomic modeling approach.

作者信息

Robcis Rodolphe, Ferchiou Ahmed, Berrada Mehdi, Ndiaye Youba, Herman Nicolas, Lhermie Guillaume, Raboisson Didier

机构信息

CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France, ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, Université de Toulouse, ENVT, 31300 Toulouse, France.

CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, Montpellier, France, ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, Université de Toulouse, ENVT, 31300 Toulouse, France.

出版信息

J Dairy Sci. 2023 Apr;106(4):2519-2534. doi: 10.3168/jds.2022-22446. Epub 2023 Mar 7.

DOI:10.3168/jds.2022-22446
PMID:36894430
Abstract

Foot disorders are costly health disorders in dairy farms, and their prevalence is related to several factors such as breed, nutrition, and farmer's management strategy. Very few modeling approaches have considered the dynamics of foot disorders and their interaction with farm management strategies within a holistic farm simulation model. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of foot disorders in dairy herds by simulating strategies for managing lameness. A dynamic and stochastic simulation model (DairyHealthSim) was used to simulate the herd dynamics, reproduction management, and health events. A specific module was built for lameness and related herd-level management strategies. Foot disorder occurrences were simulated with a base risk for each etiology [digital dermatitis (DD), interdigital dermatitis, interdigital phlegmon, sole ulcer (SU), white line disease (WLD)]. Two state machines were implemented in the model: the first was related to the disease-induced lameness score (from 1 to 5), and the second concerned DD-state transitions. A total of 880 simulations were run to represent the combination of the following 5 scenarios: (1) housing (concrete vs. textured), (2) hygiene (2 different scraping frequencies), (3) the existence of preventive trimming, (4) different thresholds of DD prevalence detected and from which a collective footbath is applied to treat DD, and (5) farmer's ability to detect lameness (detection rate). Housing, hygiene, and trimming scenarios were associated with risk factors applied for each foot disorder etiologies. The footbath and lameness detection scenarios both determined the treatment setup and the policy of herd observance. The economic evaluation outcome was the gross margin per year. A linear regression model was run to estimate the cost per lame cow (lameness score ≥3), per case of DD and per week of a cow's medium lameness duration. The bioeconomic model reproduced a lameness prevalence varying from 26 to 98% depending on the management scenario, demonstrating a high capacity of the model to represent the diversity of the field situations. Digital dermatitis represented half of the total lameness cases, followed by interdigital dermatitis (28%), SU (19%), WLD (13%), and interdigital phlegmon (4%). The housing scenarios dramatically influenced the prevalence of SU and WLD, whereas scraping frequency and threshold for footbath application mainly determined the presence of DD. Interestingly, the results showed that preventive trimming allowed a better reduction in lameness prevalence than spending time on early detection. Scraping frequency was highly associated with DD occurrence, especially with a textured floor. The regression showed that costs were homogeneous (i.e., did not change with lameness prevalence; marginal cost equals average cost). A lame cow and a DD-affected cow cost €307.50 ± 8.40 (SD) and €391.80 ± 10.0 per year on average, respectively. The results also showed a cost of €12.10 ± 0.36 per week-cow lameness. The present estimation is the first to account for interactions between etiologies and for the complex DD dynamics with all the M-stage transitions, bringing a high level of accuracy to the results.

摘要

蹄部疾病是奶牛场代价高昂的健康问题,其发病率与品种、营养和农场主的管理策略等多种因素有关。在整体农场模拟模型中,很少有建模方法考虑蹄部疾病的动态变化及其与农场管理策略的相互作用。本研究的目的是通过模拟跛行管理策略来估算奶牛群中蹄部疾病的成本。使用动态随机模拟模型(DairyHealthSim)来模拟牛群动态、繁殖管理和健康事件。针对跛行及相关牛群水平的管理策略构建了一个特定模块。针对每种病因[指趾间皮炎(DD)、趾间皮炎、趾间蜂窝织炎、蹄底溃疡(SU)、白线病(WLD)],以基础风险模拟蹄部疾病的发生情况。模型中实现了两个状态机:第一个与疾病引起的跛行评分(从1到5)相关,第二个涉及DD状态转换。总共运行了880次模拟,以代表以下5种情况的组合:(1)牛舍类型(混凝土地面与有纹理地面),(2)卫生状况(两种不同的刮粪频率),(3)是否存在预防性修蹄,(4)检测到的DD患病率的不同阈值以及从该阈值开始应用集体蹄浴治疗DD,(5)农场主检测跛行的能力(检测率)。牛舍类型、卫生状况和修蹄情况与应用于每种蹄部疾病病因的风险因素相关。蹄浴和跛行检测情况都决定了治疗设置和牛群观察策略。经济评估结果是每年的毛利润。运行线性回归模型以估算每头跛行奶牛(跛行评分≥3)、每例DD以及奶牛中度跛行持续一周的成本。生物经济模型再现的跛行患病率根据管理情况在26%至98%之间变化,表明该模型具有很高的能力来代表实际情况的多样性。指趾间皮炎占跛行病例总数的一半,其次是趾间皮炎(28%)、蹄底溃疡(19%)、白线病(13%)和趾间蜂窝织炎(4%)。牛舍类型对蹄底溃疡和白线病的患病率有显著影响,而刮粪频率和蹄浴应用阈值主要决定了指趾间皮炎的发生情况。有趣的是,结果表明预防性修蹄比花时间进行早期检测能更好地降低跛行患病率。刮粪频率与指趾间皮炎的发生高度相关,尤其是在有纹理地面的情况下。回归分析表明成本是均匀的(即不随跛行患病率变化;边际成本等于平均成本)。一头跛行奶牛和一头受DD影响的奶牛平均每年的成本分别为307.50±8.40欧元(标准差)和391.80±10.0欧元。结果还显示每头奶牛跛行一周的成本为12.10±0.36欧元。本估算首次考虑了病因之间的相互作用以及所有M阶段转换的复杂DD动态变化,为结果带来了很高的准确性。

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