Exploratory analysis of mesenteric-portal axis CT radiomic features for survival prediction of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate task-based radiomic features extracted from the mesenteric-portal axis for prediction of survival and response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with PDAC who underwent surgery after neoadjuvant therapy from two academic hospitals between December 2012 and June 2018 were retrospectively included. Two radiologists performed a volumetric segmentation of PDAC and mesenteric-portal axis (MPA) using a segmentation software on CT scans before (CTtp0) and after (CTtp1) neoadjuvant therapy. Segmentation masks were resampled into uniform 0.625-mm voxels to develop task-based morphologic features (n = 57). These features aimed to assess MPA shape, MPA narrowing, changes in shape and diameter between CTtp0 and CTtp1, and length of MPA segment affected by the tumor. A Kaplan-Meier curve was generated to estimate the survival function. To identify reliable radiomic features associated with survival, a Cox proportional hazards model was used. Features with an ICC  ≥ 0.80 were used as candidate variables, with clinical features included a priori.

RESULTS

In total, 107 patients (60 men) were included. The median survival time was 895 days (95% CI: 717, 1061). Three task-based shape radiomic features (Eccentricity mean tp0, Area minimum value tp1, and Ratio 2 minor tp1) were selected. The model showed an integrated AUC of 0.72 for prediction of survival. The hazard ratio for the Area minimum value tp1 feature was 1.78 (p = 0.02) and 0.48 for the Ratio 2 minor tp1 feature (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Preliminary results suggest that task-based shape radiomic features can predict survival in PDAC patients.

KEY POINTS

• In a retrospective study of 107 patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery for PDAC, task-based shape radiomic features were extracted and analyzed from the mesenteric-portal axis. • A Cox proportional hazards model that included three selected radiomic features plus clinical information showed an integrated AUC of 0.72 for prediction of survival, and a better fit compared to the model with only clinical information.