Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical Faculty, LVR-Clinic Duesseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Duesseldorf, 40629 Duesseldorf, Germany.
Department of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, kbo-Isar-Amper-Clinic Taufkirchen (Vils), 84416 Taufkirchen (Vils), Germany.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 1;20(5):4380. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20054380.
Female reoffending has long been a neglected research interest. Accordingly, risk assessment instruments were developed based on the criminological knowledge of male recidivism. While feminist researchers have repeatedly criticized the failure to incorporate gender-responsive risk (GR) factors, opinions on the gender neutrality of existing instruments remain inconsistent. In order to substitute the existing literature, while extending the scope to mentally disordered offenders, the aim of the given study was the prediction of general recidivism in a sample of 525 female forensic inpatients who had been discharged from forensic psychiatric care in Germany between 2001 and 2018. Primarily, ROC analysis was conducted to assess the predictive accuracy of the LSI-R. Subsequently, separate binary logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive utility of GR factors on recidivism. Lastly, multiple binary logistic regression was used to assess the incremental validity of the GR factors. The results showed that the GR factors (i.e., intimate relationship dysfunction, mental health issues, parental stress, adult physical abuse, and poverty) significantly contributed to the prediction of recidivism, while a mixed personality disorder, a dissocial personality, an unsupportive partner, and poverty added incremental validity to the predictive accuracy of the LSI-R. However, given that the added variables could only improve classification accuracy by 2.2%, the inclusion of gender-specific factors should be cautiously evaluated.
女性再犯罪长期以来一直是一个被忽视的研究领域。因此，风险评估工具是基于男性累犯的犯罪学知识开发的。虽然女权主义研究人员一再批评未能纳入对性别问题有反应的风险（GR）因素，但对现有工具的性别中立性的看法仍然不一致。为了取代现有文献，同时将范围扩大到精神障碍罪犯，本研究的目的是预测 2001 年至 2018 年间从德国法医精神病学护理中出院的 525 名女性法医住院患者的一般累犯率。主要进行了 ROC 分析，以评估 LSI-R 的预测准确性。随后，分别进行了二元逻辑回归分析，以确定 GR 因素对累犯的预测效用。最后，使用多元二元逻辑回归评估了 GR 因素的增量有效性。结果表明，GR 因素（即亲密关系功能障碍、心理健康问题、父母压力、成年期身体虐待和贫困）对累犯的预测有显著贡献，而混合人格障碍、反社会人格、不支持的伴侣和贫困则增加了 LSI-R 预测准确性的增量有效性。然而，鉴于附加变量只能将分类准确性提高 2.2%，因此应谨慎评估纳入特定性别的因素的效果。
