Xu Yuanshuo, Dong Zhaoyingzi, Wu Yan
Department of Urban Development and Management, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, 310058, China.
Department of Urban Development and Management, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, 310058, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 10;876:162790. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162790. Epub 2023 Mar 11.
Environmental regulation is expected to stimulate green innovation for the promotion of urban sustainability, while the effectiveness of this stimulus has long been debated under the Porter hypothesis and the crowding out theory. Empirical studies under different contexts have not reached a consistent conclusion yet. Based on the data of 276 cities in China from 2003 to 2013, this study captures the spatiotemporal non-stationarity in the effects of environmental regulation on green innovation with the combination of Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The results show that environmental regulation has an overall U-shape impact on green innovation, indicating that the Porter hypothesis and the crowding out theory are not in conflict, but are theoretical interpretations of different stages of local responses to environmental regulation. Specifically, the effects of environmental regulation on green innovation present to be diverse in patterns that include enhancing, stagnant, undermining, U-shape, and inverted U-shape. These contextualized relationships are shaped by local industrial incentives and innovation capacities of pursing green transformations. The spatiotemporal findings allow policymakers to better understand the multi-staged and geographically diverse impacts of environmental regulation on green innovations, and formulate targeted policies for different localities.
环境规制有望刺激绿色创新以促进城市可持续发展，而这种刺激的有效性长期以来一直在波特假说和挤出理论的框架下受到争论。不同背景下的实证研究尚未得出一致结论。基于2003年至2013年中国276个城市的数据，本研究结合地理加权回归（GTWR）和动态时间规整（DTW）算法，捕捉了环境规制对绿色创新影响中的时空非平稳性。结果表明，环境规制对绿色创新具有总体上的U型影响，这表明波特假说和挤出理论并非相互冲突，而是对地方对环境规制反应不同阶段的理论解释。具体而言，环境规制对绿色创新的影响呈现出增强、停滞、削弱、U型和倒U型等多种模式。这些情境化的关系是由地方产业激励和追求绿色转型的创新能力所塑造的。时空研究结果使政策制定者能够更好地理解环境规制对绿色创新的多阶段和地理上多样化的影响，并为不同地区制定针对性的政策。
