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一种用于优化高流量先天性心脏病小儿外科中心容量的蒙特卡洛模拟方法。

A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Optimizing Capacity in a High-Volume Congenital Heart Pediatric Surgical Center.

作者信息

Elia Eleni G, Ge Shirley, Bergersen Lisa, Thiagarajan Ravi R, Thornton Jason, Sleeper Lynn A, Fynn-Thompson Francis, Mathieu Derek, Alexander Peta M A

机构信息

Department of Cardiology, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States.

Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States.

出版信息

Front Health Serv. 2022 Feb 10;1:787358. doi: 10.3389/frhs.2021.787358. eCollection 2021.

DOI:10.3389/frhs.2021.787358
PMID:36926489
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10012657/
Abstract

IMPORTANCE

Elective surgeries are primarily scheduled according to surgeon availability with less consideration of patients' postoperative cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) length of stay. Furthermore, the CICU census can exhibit a high rate of variation in which the CICU is operating at over-capacity, resulting in admission delays and cancellations; or under-capacity, resulting in underutilized labor and overhead expenditures.

OBJECTIVE

To identify strategies to reduce variation in CICU occupancy levels and avoid late patient surgery cancellation.

DESIGN

Monte Carlo simulation study of the daily and weekly CICU census at Boston Children's Hospital Heart Center. Data on all surgical admissions to and discharges from the CICU at Boston Children's Hospital between September 1, 2009 and November 2019 were included to obtain the distribution of length of stay for the simulation study. The available data allows us to model realistic length of stay samples that include short and extended lengths of stay.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Annual number of patient surgical cancellations and change in average daily census.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that the models of strategic scheduling would result in up to 57% reduction in patient surgical cancellations, increase the historically low Monday census and decrease the historically higher late-mid-week (Wednesday and Thursday) censuses in our center.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Use of strategic scheduling may improve surgical capacity and reduce the number of annual cancellations. The reduction of peaks and valleys in the weekly census corresponds to a reduction of underutilization and overutilization of the system.

摘要

重要性

择期手术主要根据外科医生的可用时间安排,较少考虑患者术后在心脏重症监护病房(CICU)的住院时长。此外,CICU的每日住院人数可能会出现很大波动,导致CICU处于超容量运行状态,造成入院延迟和手术取消;或者处于容量不足状态,导致劳动力和间接费用未得到充分利用。

目的

确定减少CICU占用水平波动并避免患者手术延迟取消的策略。

设计

对波士顿儿童医院心脏中心CICU的每日和每周住院人数进行蒙特卡洛模拟研究。纳入了2009年9月1日至2019年11月期间波士顿儿童医院CICU所有手术入院和出院的数据,以获取模拟研究的住院时长分布。现有数据使我们能够对包括短期和长期住院时长的实际住院时长样本进行建模。

主要结果

患者手术取消的年度数量以及平均每日住院人数的变化。

结果

我们证明,战略排班模型将使患者手术取消数量最多减少57%,提高我们中心历来较低的周一住院人数,并降低历来较高的周中晚些时候(周三和周四)的住院人数。

结论及意义

采用战略排班可能会提高手术能力并减少年度取消手术的数量。每周住院人数的峰谷减少对应着系统未充分利用和过度利用情况的减少。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/c85e6c070b3d/frhs-01-787358-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/e5f09689fcab/frhs-01-787358-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/15d5a7b9462b/frhs-01-787358-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/c85e6c070b3d/frhs-01-787358-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/e5f09689fcab/frhs-01-787358-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/15d5a7b9462b/frhs-01-787358-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/35ec/10012657/c85e6c070b3d/frhs-01-787358-g0003.jpg

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Application of Operational Research Techniques in Operating Room Scheduling Problems: Literature Overview.
运筹学技术在手术室调度问题中的应用:文献综述。
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