Yamamoto Hiromasa, Kimura Yoshinari, Uchida Kenichiro, Nishimura Tetsuro, Mizobata Yasumitsu
Department of Traumatology and Critical Care Medicine Osaka Metropolitan University, Graduate School of Medicine Osaka Japan.
Faculty of Literature and Human Science Osaka Metropolitan University Osaka Japan.
Acute Med Surg. 2023 Mar 14;10(1):e825. doi: 10.1002/ams2.825. eCollection 2023 Jan-Dec.
Studies have not fully examined whether the medical care system would be able to manage the high number of casualties due to a Nankai Trough earthquake, whose probability of recurrence in the next 30 years is ~70%. This study assessed the demand-supply balance of the disaster medical care system in Osaka city by integrating the data on damage estimation and disaster coping hospitals using a geographic information system.
We obtained data on the distribution of casualties in two cases, high and low rates of evacuation from the tsunami, and available beds in Osaka city calculated from operating data of each disaster coping hospital. We expanded these data on a geographic information system and investigated the balance of medical care.
The total number of available beds in the disaster medical care facilities was 5,559, and the shortage with evacuation rates being either low or high, would be 47,631 and 1,487, respectively. With a low evacuation rate, bed shortage is a common occurrence in coastal areas. With a high evacuation rate, bed shortage decreases, and problems with medical care arise in the eastern area of Osaka city.
In the case of a low evacuation rate, greater bed shortage was found along the coast of Osaka Bay where the probabilities of flooding are high. In the case of a high evacuation rate, however, the number of casualties was much lower. A shortage of medical care did not occur along the coast, but in the eastern part of Osaka city.
研究尚未充分考察医疗系统是否能够应对南海海槽地震造成的大量伤亡情况，该地震在未来30年的复发概率约为70%。本研究通过使用地理信息系统整合灾害损失估计数据和灾害应对医院的数据，评估了大阪市灾害医疗系统的供需平衡。
我们获取了两种情况下的伤亡分布数据，即海啸疏散率高和低的情况，以及根据各灾害应对医院的运营数据计算出的大阪市可用病床数。我们在地理信息系统上扩展了这些数据，并调查了医疗平衡情况。
灾害医疗设施中的可用病床总数为5559张，疏散率低或高时的短缺病床数分别为47631张和1487张。疏散率低时，沿海地区普遍存在病床短缺情况。疏散率高时，病床短缺情况减少，大阪市东部地区出现医疗问题。
疏散率低的情况下，在大阪湾沿岸洪水可能性高的地方发现病床短缺情况更严重。然而，疏散率高时，伤亡人数要少得多。沿海地区未出现医疗短缺情况，但在大阪市东部出现了医疗短缺情况。
