Sookaromdee Pathum, Wiwanitkit Viroj
Private Academic Consultant Bangkok Thailand.
Dr DY Patil Vidhyapeeth Pune, India.
Am J Clin Exp Immunol. 2023 Feb 15;12(1):1-5. eCollection 2023.
Monkeypox is now regarded as a major global public health concern. A common symptom of this disease is an acute febrile illness with skin sores. The likelihood of the virus spreading from person to person is increasing. The aim of the present study is to estimate the protective immunity rate against monkeypox.
Based on the current situation in Africa, the authors forecast the protective immunity rate against monkeypox for the present and future if a smallpox vaccination booster is not available. The clinical mathematical model was used. The primary data for analysis include data on the current serological rate against smallpox and data on the declining rate of smallpox immunity after the last vaccination.
According to the current clinical modeling study, protective immunity to monkeypox is limited. The rate among people who have previously been immunized against smallpox is still higher than the general population rate. If the present monkeypox outbreak (2022) is not successfully controlled, there could be a severe public health danger, such as a pandemic. On a larger scale, in a few years, no immunity will be a concern.
To suppress the current monkeypox outbreak, it may be necessary to research the use of a novel monkeypox immunization or a traditional smallpox vaccine.
猴痘目前被视为全球主要的公共卫生问题。这种疾病的一个常见症状是伴有皮肤溃疡的急性发热性疾病。病毒人际传播的可能性正在增加。本研究的目的是估计针对猴痘的保护性免疫率。
基于非洲的现状，作者预测了在没有天花疫苗加强针的情况下，当前及未来针对猴痘的保护性免疫率。使用了临床数学模型。分析的主要数据包括当前针对天花的血清学率数据以及上次接种后天花免疫力下降率的数据。
根据当前的临床建模研究，对猴痘的保护性免疫是有限的。以前接种过天花疫苗的人群中的比率仍高于一般人群比率。如果当前的猴痘疫情（2022年）得不到成功控制，可能会出现严重的公共卫生危险，如大流行。从更大范围来看，几年后，无免疫力将成为一个问题。
为抑制当前的猴痘疫情，可能有必要研究新型猴痘免疫制剂或传统天花疫苗的使用。
