Transition in social risk factors and adolescent motherhood in low- income and middle- income countries: Evidence from Demographic and Health Survey data, 1996-2018.

Understanding the dynamics of social risk factors in the occurrence of adolescent motherhood is vital in designing more appropriate prevention initiatives in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed this study to examine the transition of social risk factors and their association with adolescent motherhood in LMICs since the initiation of the MDGs. We analysed 119967 adolescent girls (15-19 years) from 40-nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys in 20 LMICs that had at least two surveys: a survey in 1996-2003(baseline, near MDGs started) and another in 2014-2018(endline). Adolescent motherhood (having a live birth or being pregnant before age 20) was the outcome of interest, whereas social risk factors including household wealth, girls' level of education, and area of residence were the exposures. The association between adolescent motherhood and the social risk factors, as well as changes in the strength of the association over time were observed using multilevel logistic regression analysis. On an average, the proportion of adolescent mothers without education decreased by -15·61% (95% CI: -16·84, -14·38), whereas the poorest adolescent mother increased by 5·87% (95% CI: 4·74, 7·00). The national prevalence of adolescent motherhood remained unchanged or increased in 55·00% (11/20) of the studied countries. Comparing baseline to endline, the overall adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of adolescent motherhood increased for both poorest (AOR = 1·42, 95% CI: 1·28, 1·59) and rural residences (AOR = 1·09, 95% CI: 1·01, 1·17), and decreased, but not statistically significant for the low level of education (AOR = 0·92, 95% CI: 0·84, 1·01 for no education). Our study concludes that social risk factors of the adolescent mother had shifted in different directions during MDGs and SDGs eras, and adolescent mothers remained more disadvantaged than non-mothers in LMICs. Efforts need to be enhanced to improve adolescent girls' education. Intervention should be prioritised in disadvantaged communities to delay adolescent first birth and prevent adolescent motherhood in LMICs.