Naumann David N, Barker Tom
Department of Emergency General Surgery and Trauma, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK.
Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Trauma Surg Acute Care Open. 2023 Mar 15;8(1):e001093. doi: 10.1136/tsaco-2023-001093. eCollection 2023.
There have been sporadic case reports describing 'traumatic appendicitis' (acute appendicitis occurring following injury) for almost a hundred years. Although this might seem to be an interesting and rare diagnosis for the journal reader, both appendicitis and trauma are very common, and their occurrence together may only give the illusion of causality. Indeed, such a diagnosis may not even exist. We provide an illustration of the statistical phenomenon of coincidental occurrences in nature using a computer simulation of traumatic appendicitis in the UK population. In our simulation, there are enough cases of traumatic appendicitis every 2 years to 3 years to account for the entire global literature on the topic. We suggest that unless there is a credible pathological process reported with demonstrable causality, further case reports of traumatic appendicitis need to have robust justification.
近一百年来,一直有零星的病例报告描述“创伤性阑尾炎”(受伤后发生的急性阑尾炎)。尽管对于期刊读者来说,这似乎是一个有趣且罕见的诊断,但阑尾炎和创伤都非常常见,它们同时出现可能只是给人一种因果关系的错觉。事实上,这样的诊断甚至可能不存在。我们通过对英国人群创伤性阑尾炎的计算机模拟,举例说明了自然界中巧合事件的统计现象。在我们的模拟中,每两到三年就有足够多的创伤性阑尾炎病例,足以涵盖关于该主题的全部全球文献。我们建议,除非报告了有可证明因果关系的可信病理过程,否则创伤性阑尾炎的进一步病例报告需要有充分的理由。