Extreme freshwater discharge events exacerbated by climate change influence the structure and functional response of the chironomid community in a biodiversity hotspot.

Global climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme discharge events in freshwater ecosystems as a consequence of changes in precipitation volume and snow cover duration. Chironomid midges were used as a model organism in this study because of their small size and short life cycles, which enable fast colonization of new habitats and great resilience. This resilience is often expressed in easy recolonization after an extreme event. Chironomid samples together with physico-chemical water measurements were collected for 14 years, between 2007 and 2020, in a karst tufa barrier that is part of the Plitvice Lakes National Park in Croatia. More than 13,000 individuals belonging to >90 taxa were collected. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.1 °C during this period. Multiple change-point analysis revealed three main periods by discharge patterns: the first one from January 2007 to June 2010, the second from July 2010 to March 2013, characterised by extreme low discharge, and the third from April 2013 to December 2020, characterised by an increase in extreme peak discharge values. Based on multilevel pattern analysis, indicator species of the first and the third discharge period were detected. The ecological preferences of these species indicate an environmental change related to the changes in discharge. Along with species composition, functional composition has changed with the abundance of passive filtrators, shredders and predators increasing over time. Species richness and abundance did not change over the period of observation, thus emphasizing the importance of species-level identification in detecting the earliest community response to change that would otherwise be overlooked.