McNichol Bailey H, Russo Sabrina E
School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 1101 T Street, 402 Manter Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA.
Center for Plant Science Innovation, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 1901 Vine Street, N300 Beadle Center, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA.
Plants (Basel). 2023 Mar 9;12(6):1248. doi: 10.3390/plants12061248.
Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.
气候变化正在导致植物种群所经历的非生物和生物环境条件迅速变化，但我们缺乏可推广的框架来预测其对物种的影响。这些变化可能导致个体与其环境的匹配度变差，有可能引发种群分布的变化，并改变物种的栖息地和地理范围。我们基于功能性状变异所定义的生态策略，提出了一个基于权衡的框架，用于理解和预测植物物种是否可能发生范围变化。我们将物种发生范围变化的能力定义为其定殖能力与在整个生命阶段表达适合环境的表型的能力（表型-环境匹配）的乘积，这两者都受到物种生态策略和功能上不可避免的权衡的强烈影响。虽然许多策略在某一环境中可能是成功的，但严重的表型-环境不匹配会导致栖息地筛选：繁殖体到达一个地点但无法在那里定殖。在个体和种群内部起作用时，这些过程将在小尺度上影响物种的栖息地范围，而在种群间汇总时，将决定物种是否能追踪气候变化并发生地理范围变化。这个基于权衡的框架可以为适用于所有植物物种的物种分布模型提供概念基础，有助于预测植物物种范围因气候变化而发生的变化。
