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年龄和市值推动了加密货币的巨大价格波动。

Age and market capitalization drive large price variations of cryptocurrencies.

机构信息

Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, PR, 87020-900, Brazil.

Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Koroška cesta 160, 2000, Maribor, Slovenia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 30;13(1):3351. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-30431-3.

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are considered the latest innovation in finance with considerable impact across social, technological, and economic dimensions. This new class of financial assets has also motivated a myriad of scientific investigations focused on understanding their statistical properties, such as the distribution of price returns. However, research so far has only considered Bitcoin or at most a few cryptocurrencies, whilst ignoring that price returns might depend on cryptocurrency age or be influenced by market capitalization. Here, we therefore present a comprehensive investigation of large price variations for more than seven thousand digital currencies and explore whether price returns change with the coming-of-age and growth of the cryptocurrency market. We find that tail distributions of price returns follow power-law functions over the entire history of the considered cryptocurrency portfolio, with typical exponents implying the absence of characteristic scales for price variations in about half of them. Moreover, these tail distributions are asymmetric as positive returns more often display smaller exponents, indicating that large positive price variations are more likely than negative ones. Our results further reveal that changes in the tail exponents are very often simultaneously related to cryptocurrency age and market capitalization or only to age, with only a minority of cryptoassets being affected just by market capitalization or neither of the two quantities. Lastly, we find that the trends in power-law exponents usually point to mixed directions, and that large price variations are likely to become less frequent only in about 28% of the cryptocurrencies as they age and grow in market capitalization.

摘要

加密货币被认为是金融领域的最新创新,在社会、技术和经济等方面都产生了重大影响。这种新型金融资产也激发了大量的科学研究,旨在深入了解其统计特性,例如价格回报的分布。然而,到目前为止,研究只考虑了比特币或最多几种加密货币,而忽略了价格回报可能取决于加密货币的年龄或受市值的影响。在这里,我们因此对超过 7000 种数字货币的大规模价格波动进行了全面调查,并探讨了价格回报是否会随着加密货币市场的成熟和增长而变化。我们发现,价格回报的尾部分布在考虑的加密货币投资组合的整个历史中遵循幂律函数,典型的指数意味着在其中大约一半的情况下不存在价格变化的特征尺度。此外,这些尾部分布是不对称的,因为正回报通常显示出较小的指数,这表明大的正价格波动比负价格波动更有可能发生。我们的研究结果进一步表明,尾部指数的变化通常与加密货币的年龄和市值同时相关,或者仅与年龄相关,只有少数加密货币仅受市值或这两个数量的影响。最后,我们发现,幂律指数的趋势通常指向混合方向,而且随着年龄的增长和市值的增长,大约只有 28%的加密货币的大价格波动可能会变得不那么频繁。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b541/10063656/3d22952cbc61/41598_2023_30431_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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