Cruz Walter Gabriel Neves, Jesuino Thiago Aguiar, Moreno Hercules Fernandes, Santos Lara Garrido, Galvão-de Almeida Amanda
Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA, Brazil.
Departamento de Neurociências e Saúde Mental, Faculdade de Medicina da Bahia, UFBA, Salvador, BA, Brazil.
Trends Psychiatry Psychother. 2024;46:e20220564. doi: 10.47626/2237-6089-2022-0564. Epub 2023 Apr 3.
Yellow September (YS) (Setembro Amarelo) is a Brazilian suicide prevention campaign launched in 2015, however, its effectiveness at reducing mortality is still unknown. This is an ecologically interrupted time series study that analyzed the trend in suicide rates in Brazil between 2011 and 2019 and its association with the implementation of YS at a national level.
A segmented interrupted series regression analysis was performed, using a generalized linear Poisson model, with correction for seasonal trends. Data were provided by the Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações Sobre Mortalidade [SIM]).
There was an increase in the annual rates of suicide deaths between 2011 and 2019, with 4.99 and 6.41 suicides per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. The null hypothesis, that the YS did not change the historical trend of growth in suicides in Brazil after its implementation, was confirmed. However, there was a significant increase of 6.2% in the risk of mortality in 2017 and a significant increase of 8.6% in 2019.
The results are consistent with the literature, which proposes that campaigns focused solely on publicity in the media generate unsound findings regarding the effective reduction in the number of deaths by suicide. The lack of initiatives involving multisectoral actions may explain the failure of YS to change rates of death by suicide. Therefore, implementation of new lines of action focused on training professionals and expanding the care network could make it an effective instrument for reducing mortality from suicide.
“黄色九月”（YS）（Setembro Amarelo）是巴西于2015年发起的一项预防自杀运动，然而，其在降低死亡率方面的有效性仍不明确。这是一项生态中断时间序列研究，分析了2011年至2019年巴西自杀率的趋势及其与在国家层面实施YS的关联。
采用广义线性泊松模型进行分段中断序列回归分析，并对季节性趋势进行校正。数据由死亡信息系统（Sistema de Informações Sobre Mortalidade [SIM]）提供。
2011年至2019年自杀死亡年率有所上升，每10万居民中分别有4.99例和6.41例自杀。原假设得到证实，即YS实施后并未改变巴西自杀率增长的历史趋势。然而，2017年死亡率风险显著增加了6.2%，2019年显著增加了8.6%。
研究结果与文献一致，文献提出仅聚焦于媒体宣传的运动在有效降低自杀死亡人数方面产生的结果不可靠。缺乏涉及多部门行动的举措可能解释了YS未能改变自杀死亡率的原因。因此，实施以培训专业人员和扩大护理网络为重点的新行动路线可能使其成为降低自杀死亡率的有效工具。
