Department of Physical Therapy, College of Tourism & Health, Joongbu University, Geumsan, Republic of Korea.
Department of Physical Therapy, Division of Health Science, Baekseok University, Cheonan, Republic of Korea.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord. 2023 Apr 11;24(1):278. doi: 10.1186/s12891-023-06389-8.
Hallux valgus (HV) is a common toe deformity with various contributory factors. The interactions between intrinsic risk factors of HV, such as arch height, sex, age, and body mass index (BMI) should be considered. The present study aimed to establish a predictive model for HV using intrinsic factors, such as sex, age, BMI, and arch height based on decision tree (DT) model.
This is retrospective study. The study data were based on the fifth Size Korea survey, of the Korea Technology Standard Institute. Among 5,185 patients, 645 were excluded due to unsuitable age or missing data, and 4,540 (males = 2,236 and females = 2,304) were selected for inclusion in the study. Seven variables (i.e., sex, age, BMI, and four normalized arch height variables) were used to develop the prediction model for the presence of HV using a DT model.
The DT model correctly classified 68.79% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 67.25-70.29%) of the training data set (3,633 cases). The predicted presence of HV based on the DT was verified against the testing data set (907 cases) and showed an accuracy of 69.57% (95% CI = 66.46-72.55%).
The DT model predicted the presence of HV on the basis of sex, age, and normalized arch height. According to our model, women aged over 50 years and those with lower normalized arch height were at high risk of HV.
拇外翻（HV）是一种常见的脚趾畸形，有多种致病因素。应考虑 HV 的内在危险因素之间的相互作用，如足弓高度、性别、年龄和体重指数（BMI）。本研究旨在基于决策树（DT）模型，使用内在因素（如性别、年龄、BMI 和足弓高度）建立 HV 的预测模型。
这是一项回顾性研究。研究数据基于韩国技术标准研究所的第五次韩国规模调查。在 5185 名患者中，有 645 名因年龄不合适或数据缺失而被排除在外，有 4540 名（男性=2236 名，女性=2304 名）被纳入研究。使用 DT 模型，将 7 个变量（即性别、年龄、BMI 和 4 个归一化足弓高度变量）用于开发 HV 存在的预测模型。
DT 模型正确分类了 68.79%（95%置信区间[CI]=67.25-70.29%）的训练数据集（3633 例）。基于 DT 预测的 HV 存在情况与测试数据集（907 例）进行了验证，准确率为 69.57%（95% CI=66.46-72.55%）。
DT 模型基于性别、年龄和归一化足弓高度预测 HV 的存在。根据我们的模型，年龄在 50 岁以上的女性和归一化足弓高度较低的女性患 HV 的风险较高。
