Santiago Marizângela Lissandra de Oliveira, Nunes Renata Adele de Lima, de Oliveira Fernando Virgílio Albuquerque, Beserra Mabell Kallyne Melo, Sena Francisco Thiago Carneiro, Gomes Loyane Ellen Silva, Costa Douglas de Araújo, Macena Raimunda Hermelinda Maia
Universidade Federal do Ceará Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública Fortaleza (CE) Brasil Universidade Federal do Ceará, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública, Fortaleza (CE), Brasil.
Secretaria de Segurança Pública e Defesa Social do Estado do Ceará (SSPDS/CE) Perícia Forense Fortaleza (CE) Brasil Secretaria de Segurança Pública e Defesa Social do Estado do Ceará (SSPDS /CE), Perícia Forense, Fortaleza (CE) Brasil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2023 Apr 14;47:e68. doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2023.68. eCollection 2023.
To identify the temporal trend in mortality and years of life lost to death or disability (DALY) due to motorcycle accidents in males from Latin America and the Caribbean from 2010 to 2019, using estimates produced by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.
In this ecological study, the time series was analyzed using a piecewise linear regression model (joinpoint) to estimate and test the annual percent change and the average annual percent change with a 95% confidence interval.
The super-region defined by GBD 2019 as Latin America and the Caribbean ranked first globally in mortality and DALY for male motorcyclists aged 15-49 in 2019. Rates increased significantly from 2010 to 2013, with a significant reduction in both after this period. During the analyzed decade, the Tropical Latin America sub-region (Brazil and Paraguay) had the highest mortality and DALY rates in the population of interest; nevertheless, this was the only sub-region achieving a significant reduction in these rates. The Caribbean sub-region (Bermuda, Dominica, Suriname, Guyana, Belize, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Saint Kitts and Nevis, U.S. Virgin Islands, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba e Jamaica) showed a significant increase in both rates over the same period, while Andean Latin America (Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru) and Central Latin America (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Honduras, and Venezuela) remained stable.
The data underscore the importance of developing surveillance actions aimed at preventing motorcycle accidents, since the observed declining rates are still insufficient to address the morbidity and mortality associated with road accidents as a public health problem.
利用全球疾病负担(GBD)研究产生的估计数据,确定2010年至2019年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区男性因摩托车事故导致的死亡率以及因死亡或残疾损失的生命年数(伤残调整生命年,DALY)的时间趋势。
在这项生态研究中,使用分段线性回归模型(连接点)分析时间序列,以估计和检验年度百分比变化以及具有95%置信区间的平均年度百分比变化。
2019年,GBD 2019定义的拉丁美洲和加勒比超级地区在15 - 49岁男性摩托车骑行者的死亡率和伤残调整生命年方面全球排名第一。2010年至2013年死亡率显著上升,此后两者均显著下降。在分析的十年中,热带拉丁美洲次区域(巴西和巴拉圭)在目标人群中的死亡率和伤残调整生命年率最高;然而,这是唯一一个这些率显著下降的次区域。加勒比次区域(百慕大、多米尼克、苏里南、圭亚那、伯利兹、巴哈马、波多黎各、圣卢西亚、多米尼加共和国、海地、圣基茨和尼维斯、美属维尔京群岛、格林纳达、特立尼达和多巴哥、巴巴多斯、圣文森特和格林纳丁斯、安提瓜和巴布达、古巴及牙买加)在同一时期这两个率均显著上升,而安第斯拉丁美洲(厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚和秘鲁)和中拉丁美洲(哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、洪都拉斯和委内瑞拉)保持稳定。
数据强调了开展旨在预防摩托车事故的监测行动的重要性,因为观察到的下降率仍不足以解决作为公共卫生问题的道路事故相关的发病率和死亡率。