Measuring and modeling diel oxygen dynamics in a shallow hypereutrophic estuary: Implications of low oxygen exposure on aquatic life.

Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) is a common outcome of excess nitrogen and phosphorus delivered to coastal waterbodies. Shallow and highly productive estuaries are particularly susceptible to diel-cycling hypoxia, which can exhibit DO excursions between anoxia (DO ≤1 mg L) and supersaturated concentrations within a day. Shallow estuaries exhibiting diel-cycling hypoxia are understudied relative to larger and deeper estuaries, with very few mechanistic models that can predict diel oxygen dynamics. We utilized continuous monitoring data and the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) coupled with an Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to simulate diel DO dynamics in Weeks Bay, AL. Low oxygen conditions ranging from anoxia to DO ≤4 mg L were consistently observed and simulated in the lower water column for periods of minutes to >11 h. High frequency observations and model simulations also identified significant vertical gradients in near bottom DO that varied as much as 0.8 to 3.1 mg L within 0.4 m from the bottom. This spatiotemporal variability presents unique challenges to adequately quantify DO dynamics and the potential exposure of aquatic life to low oxygen conditions. Our results demonstrate the need for detailed measurements to adequately quantify the complex DO dynamics in shallow estuaries. We also demonstrate that simulation models can be successfully applied to evaluate diel oxygen dynamics in complex estuarine environments when calibrated with fine time scale data and effective parameterization of water column and benthic metabolic processes.