Department of Agricultural Management and Development, University of Tehran, Iran.
Forest Research Institute, University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 15;882:163549. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163549. Epub 2023 Apr 17.
Water scarcity is a highly complex, multifaceted and dynamic issue, which has become a severe global challenge. Water scarcity is a hyperconnected phenomenon and thus should be studied through nexus approach, however current water-energy-food (WEF) nexus underrepresents the impacts of land use change and climate change on water scarcity. Therefore, this study was investigated to expand the WEF nexus coverage of further systems, improving the accuracy of nexus models for decision-making and narrowing science-policy gap. Current study developed a water-energy-food-land-climate (WEFLC) nexus model to analyze the water scarcity. Modeling the complex behavior of water scarcity enables the analysis of the efficiency of some adaptation policies in addressing water scarcity and will provide suggestions for improving adaptation practices. The results showed that there is a substantial water supply-demand gap in study region, with an excess consumption of 62,361 million m. Under baseline scenario, the gap between water supply and demand will enlarge, leading to water crisis in Iran as our study region. Climate change was found to be the prime cause of exacerbating water scarcity in Iran, raising evapotranspiration from 70 % to 85 % in 50 years, and considerably increasing the water demand in various sectors. In terms of policy/adaptation measure analysis, the results showed that neither supply-side nor demand-side scenarios could solely address water crisis, and mixed supply-demand side interventions can be the most effective policy to alleviate water crisis. Overall, the study suggests that water resource management practices and policies in Iran should be reevaluated to include a system thinking management approach. The results can be used as a decision support tool that can recommend suitable mitigation and adaptation strategies for water scarcity in the country.
水资源短缺是一个高度复杂、多方面且动态的问题，已成为全球严峻挑战。水资源短缺是一个高度关联的现象，因此应采用关联方法进行研究，但当前的水-能源-粮食（WEF）关联方法未能充分体现土地利用变化和气候变化对水资源短缺的影响。因此，本研究旨在扩展 WEF 关联方法的覆盖范围，以进一步纳入系统，提高关联模型的决策准确性，并缩小科学-政策差距。本研究开发了水-能源-粮食-土地-气候（WEFLC）关联模型来分析水资源短缺。对水资源短缺复杂行为进行建模，能够分析一些适应政策在解决水资源短缺方面的效率，并为改进适应实践提供建议。研究结果表明，研究区域存在大量的供用水缺口，超额消耗了 623.61 亿立方米的水资源。在基准情景下，供用水缺口将进一步扩大，导致伊朗出现水危机。气候变化被认为是加剧伊朗水资源短缺的主要原因，50 年内将蒸散作用提高了 70%-85%，并大幅增加了各部门的用水需求。就政策/适应措施分析而言，结果表明，无论是供应侧还是需求侧情景都无法单独解决水危机，而供需两侧的综合干预可能是缓解水危机的最有效政策。总的来说，本研究表明，伊朗的水资源管理实践和政策应进行重新评估，纳入系统思维管理方法。研究结果可以作为决策支持工具，为该国的水资源短缺推荐合适的缓解和适应策略。
