Does the low-carbon pilot policy improve urban economic resilience? Evidence from China.

Identifying the relationship between carbon neutrality initiatives and its economic impact is crucial in evaluating the cost of low-carbon transition for policy makers. In this paper, a theoretical model is built to discuss the effects of the low-carbon pilot policy in China on urban economic resilience and an empirical test is conducted to examine the relationship using the Heckman two stage model and a panel data of 277 cities from 2004 to 2020. The results show that low-carbon pilot policy significantly enhanced urban economic resilience and the stimulating effect is mainly achieved by motivating technology innovations. In addition, further analysis indicates that low-carbon pilot policy has a more pronounced effect on improving urban economic resilience of cities in the central and western regions than eastern regions. The effect is also more prominent in non-first-tier cities than first-tier cities. The results are robust to placebo test, the Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Difference test and the test for alternative measure of urban economic resilience. The findings show that the low-carbon pilot policy is consistent with the goal of improving urban economic resilience and technology innovation is the essential pillar of sustainable development.