Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, University Campus, PC 67100 Xanthi, Greece.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 15;882:163625. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163625. Epub 2023 Apr 21.
The term "Watershed-Coast System" refers to the entities consisting of watersheds and the areas adjacent to their outlets, where sediment delivery from rivers and natural streams plays a key role in the evolution of coastal morphology. Climate change implications in these complex systems are projected to extend from morphological to ecological and socio-economic ones, threatening ecosystems, cultural heritage, settlements, infrastructure and human life itself. Accordingly, the design of protection and adaptation measures that will enhance resilience against relevant hazards has emerged as an imperative need in both research and policy. Understanding how watershed and coastal processes are intertwined into a web of dependencies that shape morphology evolution, how climate change would affect watershed/coastal dynamics and how scientists can design effective protection/adaptation measures, can only be achieved on the basis of integrated modelling systems that simulate the morphodynamics of the watershed-coast continuum. Within this context, the present work provides a critical review of the theoretical background and state-of-the-art of research on the modelling of Watershed-Coast System morphodynamics, and through this: (a) presents a scheme for the integrated modelling of Watershed-Coast System morphodynamics in a changing climate and analyses its core aspects, (b) proposes a methodological framework for adapting integrated modelling approaches for management and engineering purposes, (c) identifies and evaluates the major scientific and modelling challenges ahead, and (d) systematises the path towards informed decision-making for building resilient Watershed-Coast Systems by bridging the gaps between science, society and governance. The overall approach is applied as proof-of-concept to a hypothetical case study of a Watershed-Coast System located in the Mediterranean.
“流域-海岸系统”一词是指由流域和其出口相邻的区域组成的实体，河流和自然溪流的泥沙输送在海岸形态的演变中起着关键作用。预计这些复杂系统中的气候变化影响将从形态学扩展到生态和社会经济领域，威胁到生态系统、文化遗产、住区、基础设施和人类自身。因此，设计能够增强抵御相关灾害能力的保护和适应措施已成为研究和政策的当务之急。了解流域和海岸过程如何交织成一个依赖关系网络，从而塑造形态演变，气候变化将如何影响流域/海岸动力，以及科学家如何设计有效的保护/适应措施，只有基于模拟流域-海岸连续体形态动力学的综合模型系统才能实现。在此背景下，本工作对流域-海岸系统形态动力学建模的理论背景和研究现状进行了批判性回顾，并通过以下方式：（a）提出了一种在气候变化下综合模拟流域-海岸系统形态动力学的方案，并分析了其核心方面；（b）提出了一种用于管理和工程目的的综合建模方法的适应方法框架；（c）确定和评估了未来的主要科学和建模挑战；（d）通过在科学、社会和治理之间架起桥梁，为建立具有弹性的流域-海岸系统做出明智决策提供系统的途径。该综合方法应用于地中海假设流域-海岸系统的案例研究，作为概念验证。
