Abakah Emmanuel Joel Aikins, Caporale Guglielmo Maria, Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko
University of Ghana Business School, Accra, Ghana.
Brunel University London, UK.
Heliyon. 2023 May;9(5):e15422. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15422. Epub 2023 Apr 12.
This paper analyses the effects of containment measures and monetary and fiscal responses on US financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, it applies fractional integration methods to analyse their impact on the daily S&P500, the US Treasury Bond Index (USTB), the S&P Green Bond Index (GREEN) and the Dow Jones (DJ) Islamic World Market Index (ISLAM) over the period 1/01/2020-10/03/2021. The results suggest that all four indices are highly persistent and exhibit orders of integration close to 1. A small degree of mean reversion is observed only for the S&P500 under the assumption of white noise errors and USTB with autocorrelated errors; therefore, market efficiency appears to hold in most cases. The mortality rate, surprisingly, seems to have affected stock and bond prices positively with autocorrelated errors. As for the policy responses, both the containment and fiscal measures had a rather limited impact, whilst there were significant announcement effects which lifted markets, especially in the case of monetary announcements. There is also evidence of a significant, positive response to changes in the effective Federal funds rate, which suggests that the financial industry, mainly benefiting from interest rises, plays a dominant role.
本文分析了新冠疫情期间遏制措施以及货币和财政应对措施对美国金融市场的影响。更具体地说,本文运用分数积分方法,分析了这些措施在2020年1月1日至2021年3月10日期间对标准普尔500指数、美国国债指数(USTB)、标准普尔绿色债券指数(GREEN)和道琼斯伊斯兰世界市场指数(ISLAM)的每日数据的影响。结果表明,所有这四个指数都具有高度的持续性,且积分阶数接近1。仅在白噪声误差假设下的标准普尔500指数以及具有自相关误差的美国国债指数中观察到了小程度的均值回归;因此,在大多数情况下市场效率似乎成立。令人惊讶的是,死亡率在自相关误差情况下似乎对股票和债券价格产生了正向影响。至于政策应对措施,遏制措施和财政措施的影响都相当有限,而公告效应显著,提振了市场,尤其是货币公告的情况。也有证据表明对有效联邦基金利率的变化有显著的正向反应,这表明主要受益于利率上升的金融业发挥了主导作用。