The influence of climate warming on flowering phenology in relation to historical annual and seasonal temperatures and plant functional traits.

Climate warming has the potential to influence plant flowering phenology which in turn can have broader ecological consequences. Herbarium collections offer a source of historical plant data that makes possible the ability to document and better understand how warming climate can influence long-term shifts in flowering phenology. We examined the influence of annual, winter, and spring temperatures on the flowering phenology of herbarium specimens for 36 species collected from 1884-2015. We then compared the response to warming between native and non-native, woody and herbaceous, dry and fleshy fruit, and spring vs summer blooming species. Across all species, plants flowered 2.26 days earlier per 1 °C increase in annual average temperatures and 2.93 days earlier per 1 °C increase in spring onset average temperatures. Winter temperatures did not significantly influence flowering phenology. The relationship of temperature and flowering phenology was not significantly different between native and non-native species. Woody species flowered earlier than herbaceous species only in response to increasing annual temperatures. There was no difference in the phenological response between species with dry fruits and those fleshy fruits for any of the temperature periods. Spring blooming species exhibited a significantly greater phenological response to warming yearly average temperatures than summer blooming species. Although herbarium specimens can reveal climate change impacts on phenology, it is also evident that the phenological responses to warming vary greatly among species due to differences in functional traits such as those considered here, as well as other factors.