Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Braconidae): Biology, Systematics, and Response to Climate Change through Ecological Niche Modelling.

The parasitoid wasp Ashmead (Braconidae: Microgastrinae) is an important natural enemy of caterpillars and of a range of noctuids, including pest species of armyworms ( spp.). Here, the wasp is redescribed and, for the first time, illustrated based on the holotype. An updated list of all the species attacking the noctuid spp. along with a discussion on host-parasitoid-food plant associations is offered. Based on information about the actual distribution of and a set of bioclimatic variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model and the quantum geographic information system (QGIS) were explored to predict the potential distribution of this wasp in a global context. The worldwide geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of at present and in three different periods in the future was simulated. The relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test were combined to identify dominant bioclimatic variables and their appropriate values influencing the potential distribution of . The results showed that under current climate conditions, the prediction of the maximum entropy model highly matches the actual distribution, and that the obtained value of simulation accuracy was very high. Likewise, the distribution of was mainly affected by five bioclimatic variables, listed in order of importance as follows: precipitation during the wettest month (BIO13), annual precipitation (BIO12), annual mean temperature (BIO1), temperature seasonality (BIO4), and mean temperature during the warmest quarter (BIO10). In a global context, the suitable habitat of would be mainly in tropical and subtropical countries. Furthermore, under the four greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in the future period of the 2070s, the areas with high, medium, and low suitability showed varying degrees of change from current conditions and are expected to expand in the future. This work provides theoretical backing for studies associated with the safeguarding of the environment and pest management.