Nacher Mathieu, Basurko Célia, Douine Maylis, Lambert Yann, Hcini Najeh, Elenga Narcisse, Le Turnier Paul, Epelboin Loïc, Djossou Félix, Couppié Pierre, de Toffol Bertrand, Drak Alsibai Kinan, Sabbah Nadia, Adenis Antoine
Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne, CIC INSERM 1424, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana.
Amazonian Infrastructures for Population Health, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2023 Apr 8;8(4):219. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040219.
There are great variations between population subgroups, notably in poorer countries, leading to substantial inconsistencies with those predicted by the classical epidemiologic transition theory. In this context, using public data, we aimed to determine how the singular case of French Guiana fit and transitioned in the epidemiologic transition framework. The data show a gradual decline in infant mortality to values above 8 per 1000 live births. Premature mortality rates were greater but declined more rapidly in French Guiana than in mainland France until 2017 when they reascended in a context of political turmoil followed by the COVID-19 pandemic and strong reluctance to get vaccinated. Although infections were a more frequent cause of death in French Guiana, there is a marked decline and circulatory and metabolic causes are major causes of premature death. Fertility rates remain high (>3 live births per woman), and the age structure of the population is still pyramid-shaped. The singularities of French Guiana (rich country, universal health system, widespread poverty) explain why its transition does not fit neatly within the usual stages of transition. Beyond gradual improvements in secular trends, the data also suggest that political turmoil and fake news may have detrimentally affected mortality in French Guiana and reversed improving trends.
不同人群亚组之间存在很大差异,尤其是在较贫穷国家,这导致与经典流行病学转变理论所预测的情况存在重大不一致。在此背景下,我们利用公开数据,旨在确定法属圭亚那这一独特案例在流行病学转变框架中的情况及转变方式。数据显示婴儿死亡率逐渐下降至每1000例活产超过8例。直到2017年,法属圭亚那的过早死亡率更高,但下降速度比法国本土更快,之后在政治动荡、新冠疫情以及强烈的疫苗接种抵触情绪的背景下,过早死亡率再度上升。尽管在法属圭亚那感染是更常见的死亡原因,但感染导致的死亡显著下降,循环系统和代谢性疾病成为过早死亡的主要原因。生育率仍然很高(每名妇女活产超过3个孩子),人口年龄结构仍呈金字塔形。法属圭亚那的独特之处(富裕国家、全民医疗体系、普遍贫困)解释了为何其转变并不完全符合通常的转变阶段。除了长期趋势的逐步改善外,数据还表明政治动荡和虚假信息可能对法属圭亚那的死亡率产生了不利影响,并扭转了改善趋势。