Am Nat. 2023 May;201(5):680-693. doi: 10.1086/723626. Epub 2023 Mar 20.
AbstractBy comparing detrended estimates of diversity (taxonomic richness) and rates of origination, extinction, and net diversification, I show that at the global scale over the course of the Phanerozoic eon, rates of diversification and origination are negatively correlated with diversity. By contrast, extinction rates are only weakly correlated with diversity for the most part. These results hold for both genus- and species-level data and for many alternative analytical protocols. The asymmetry between extinction on the one hand and origination and net diversification on the other hand supports a model whereby extinction is largely driven by abiotic perturbations, with subsequent origination filling the void left by depleted diversity. Diversity dependence is somewhat weaker, but still evident, if the initial Ordovician radiation or rebounds from major mass extinctions are omitted from analysis; thus, diversity dependence is influenced, but not dominated, by these special intervals of Earth history. In the transition from Paleozoic to post-Paleozoic time, diversity dependence of origination weakens while that of extinction strengthens; however, diversity dependence of net diversification barely changes in strength. Despite nuances, individual clades largely yield results consistent with those for the aggregate data on all animals. On the whole, diversity-dependent diversification appears to be a pervasive factor in the macroevolution of marine animal life.
摘要 通过比较多样性（分类丰富度）和起源、灭绝和净多样化率的去趋势估计，我表明，在整个显生宙时期，全球范围内的多样化和起源率与多样性呈负相关。相比之下，灭绝率在很大程度上与多样性只有较弱的相关性。这些结果适用于属和种水平的数据以及许多替代分析方案。灭绝与起源和净多样化之间的这种不对称性支持了这样一种模型，即灭绝主要是由生物因素引起的，随后的起源填补了因多样性减少而留下的空白。如果分析中排除了最初的奥陶纪辐射或从主要大规模灭绝中反弹的情况，多样性的依赖性就会稍弱，但仍然存在；因此，多样性的依赖性受到这些地球历史特殊时期的影响，但并非由其主导。在从古生代到后生代的过渡时期，起源的多样性依赖性减弱，而灭绝的多样性依赖性增强；然而，净多样化的多样性依赖性在强度上几乎没有变化。尽管存在细微差别，但个别分支在很大程度上与所有动物的综合数据得出的结果一致。总的来说，多样性相关的多样化似乎是海洋动物生命宏观进化的一个普遍因素。
