Center for Professional Training and Service, China Association for Science and Technology, 100081, Beijing, China.
Business School, Hubei University, Wuhan, 430062, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jun;30(28):72146-72159. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-26910-9. Epub 2023 May 10.
Animal husbandry is an important emission source of greenhouse gas. In order to discover the real situation of carbon emission in China's animal husbandry scientifically, the paper measured and calculated carbon emission in China's animal husbandry from 1997 to 2017 on the basis of soil and water resources. In addition, analyzing its time-order characters, structural characters, driving factors and decoupling relationships are all done in this treatise. Major findings are as follows: (1) The carbon emission of China's animal husbandry in 2017 was 374.3528 million tons, an increase of 17.8066 million tons over 1997, with the average annual growth rate of 0.24% and the average annual carbon emission of 398.7817 million tons; (2) There was a decreasing trend in carbon emission of intestinal fermentation in China's animal husbandry while there was an increasing trend in carbon emission of manure emission in China's animal husbandry; (3) The carbon emission of China's animal husbandry peaked in 2006 and went through three phases of up-down-steady between 1997 and 2017; (4) The contribution of cattle, pig, sheep, other large livestock, poultry and rabbits to China's animal husbandry carbon emissions decreased in turn, and the average contribution of cattle, pigs and sheep to China's animal husbandry carbon emissions was as high as 98.15%. (5) Five factors reducing carbon emission of China's animal husbandry were carbon intensity, agricultural industrial structure, agricultural population-water resources matching degree, agricultural water-soil resources and per capita cultivated land area. Two factors increasing carbon emission of China's animal husbandry were population and economic benefits of agriculture per unit agricultural population; (6) There was a generally weak decoupling between carbon emission in China's animal husbandry and animal husbandry's economic growth from 1997 to 2017.
畜牧业是温室气体的重要排放源。为了科学地发现中国畜牧业碳排放的真实情况,本文基于水土资源,测算了并计算了 1997 年至 2017 年中国畜牧业的碳排放。此外,还对其时间顺序特征、结构特征、驱动因素和脱钩关系进行了分析。主要发现如下:(1)2017 年中国畜牧业碳排放为 37435.28 万吨,比 1997 年增加 1780.66 万吨,年均增长率为 0.24%,年均碳排放 3987.817 万吨;(2)中国畜牧业肠道发酵的碳排放呈下降趋势,而中国畜牧业粪肥排放的碳排放呈上升趋势;(3)中国畜牧业碳排放于 2006 年达到峰值,并在 1997 年至 2017 年期间经历了三起一落的阶段;(4)牛、猪、羊、其他大牲畜、家禽和兔对中国畜牧业碳排放的贡献依次降低,牛、猪和羊对中国畜牧业碳排放的平均贡献高达 98.15%;(5)降低中国畜牧业碳排放的五个因素是碳强度、农业产业结构、农业人口-水资源匹配度、农业水土资源和人均耕地面积。增加中国畜牧业碳排放的两个因素是人口和单位农业人口的农业经济效益;(6)1997 年至 2017 年,中国畜牧业碳排放与畜牧业经济增长之间普遍存在弱脱钩关系。