Key Laboratory of Power Station Energy Transfer Conversion and System of Ministry of Education, School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Oct 1;841:156788. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156788. Epub 2022 Jun 18.
Comprehensively clarifying China's carbon emission factors and formulating effective strategies are essential and significant for achieving the "30-60" dual carbon target. This manuscript proposed a novel hierarchical framework of multi-factor decomposition, comprehensive evaluation, prediction, and decoupling analysis of the carbon emission. The multi-factor decomposition model from the perspectives of energy, economy, and society based on the expanding the Kaya Identity and LMDI decomposition method can provide the quantification results. On this basis, this manuscript applies the entropy weight method to construct the evaluation system and generate the index from the environment, energy, and economy dimensions for China's six power generation modes. Furthermore, the carbon emission dynamics model is built based on the carbon emission data in the past 40 years and used to predict China's carbon emission in the next 40 years under multi scenarios combined with Tapio's decoupling theory. The results show that income per capita and thermal power generation result in carbon emission, while energy price and intensity are decreasing. Moreover, reducing energy consumption and increasing the proportion of renewable energy are effective ways to make China's carbon emission peak in 2030, with a peak value of 12.276 billion tons. Eventually, with policies implemented, carbon emission, economic growth, and social development are predicted to reach a strong decoupling state, indicating long-lasting negative correlations. In summary, this study will provide a comprehensive analytical solution for factor decomposition, integrated assessment, and predictive decoupling of carbon emission from a national level, aiming to provide scientifically reasonable suggestions for policies and regulations for the "dual carbon" goal.
全面厘清中国碳排放因子并制定有效策略，对于实现“30-60”双碳目标具有重要意义。本研究提出了一种新的多因素分解、综合评价、预测和脱钩分析的碳排放量分层框架。基于扩展的 Kaya 恒等式和 LMDI 分解方法的能源、经济和社会多因素分解模型可以提供量化结果。在此基础上，本研究应用熵权法构建评价体系，从环境、能源和经济维度生成中国六种发电模式的指标。进一步地，根据过去 40 年的碳排放数据建立碳排放动力学模型，并结合 Tapio 脱钩理论，在多种情景下预测中国未来 40 年的碳排放。结果表明，人均收入和火力发电导致碳排放增加，而能源价格和强度呈下降趋势。此外，减少能源消耗和增加可再生能源比例是中国实现 2030 年碳达峰的有效途径，峰值为 122.76 亿吨。最终，随着政策的实施，碳排放、经济增长和社会发展预计将达到强脱钩状态，表明存在持久的负相关关系。总之，本研究将为国家层面的碳排放因素分解、综合评价和预测脱钩提供全面的分析解决方案，为“双碳”目标的政策制定提供科学合理的建议。
